ame
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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:18 am

Wait till he tries to run Windows 10...

PiGraham
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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:19 am

jamesh wrote:
PiGraham wrote:
jamesh wrote:There's not a lot more to say, apart from perhaps giving some background in to the previous statements about when the Pi2 might be coming out.

Two years ago, 2017 would have been the best date for a new Pi, but the technology world changes quickly. Things like the ODROID-C1 mean that for the same price there was much more competent device, and something needed to be done. Broadcom had been working on the 2836 and even though the team was small, this work came to fruition much faster than expected (the chip worked first time!) , so there was an opportunity to catch up with the other SBC's out there, earlier than expected. Also worth noting that although the Foundation is a charity, they are still a business, and need to keep going as a business. With the education team running full tilt, and some expensive engineers to pay for, they need a steady income stream, and the P2 is how that revenue stream is maintained.
I don't think any of that is at issue. I agree that RPF have good reasons for not publicising their product development schedules.

Maybe they should refrain from publishing false or misleading development schedules.
The problem is I think the website doesn't get updated as much as it should. If you go back to earlier blog comments, then there is clearly wrong information in them that has never been updated. But I will flag this up for better handling, it could be done better.

Thank you James.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:32 am

Considering the unjustified sense of entitlement about all affairs Raspberry Pi, including the foundations actions on this forum I'm not surprised "they" chose to not say anything.

The second people know something is happening there will be people banging on the door asking for details and dates.

If advanced notice had been given then the forum would have been full of people moaning about the feature set (which is still happening) not having features like USB3/VGA, or whatever other random feature with people ranting want thinking they can force a design change before the fact.

He can still save for a Raspberry Pi 2 :)
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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:42 am

Been pondering actually about how it could be done better.

Eben gets asked all the time when the next Pi comes out - what should he say? He cannot give exact dates, because there are none, and if he does say something that's inside a year the sales of previous models drop like a stone (Osbourne effect). So his only real options is to say nothing. Which some people would take as "very soon, better not buy a B+ now" and some would take as "there not planning anything, they are not serious, why buy at all?"

So if he does say something like 2017, because at the time that's what he expected, that gets reported everywhere. If plans change, does the Foundation then remove everything on their website, and thereby giving away that something is happening? And of course, there is no way of changing every reference to 2017 out there on the internet.

It really is a no-win situation.
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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:42 am

I think the main problem is that those who knew there were plans to introduce a new model have been seen as presenting it as if that was not the case. This leads to a feeling of, at least, having been misled, and even deliberately so.

The complaint is not that people were not told there would be a new model, but that people were told there would not be a new model.

Let's face it; it is impossible to say "there are no immediate plans for the next model" was correct when the Foundation were sending out the embargoed announcements of the launch of that product to the news media, and was arguable incorrect for a good number of months before then.

Perhaps that was an oversight but it was also the line which was being actively parroted on the forum even while those plans to launch the new model were settling into place, seemingly by people who knew of the plan to imminently introduce a new model.

I personally feel that people do have the right to feel at least a little aggrieved.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:56 am

I think this is one of the cases where an explanation of *why* companies do this and a lesson from history is warranted.

In 1985 a computer manufacturer called Osbourne Computer Corporation went bankrupt due to sales of their previous products falling rapidly due to early announcement of a new product being in the pipeline.

Unforeseen delays meant the new product took longer to reach the market than intended, which combined with the failure of the sales of the preceding product led to a downward spiral that the company was unable to recover from.

This became known as the "Osbourne Effect", where the effect of sales on a companies product line could be negatively impacted by announcement of a new product, especially in technology where any unforeseen issues could delay the availability of the new product.

Companies try to reduce the impact of this effect by leaving announcement of a new product as late as possible.

The "Osbourne Effect" can also be reduced by narrowing the gap between a product announcement and the new products availability as much as possible, this is the method that Apple use and it seems that the Raspberry Pi Foundation also uses this strategy.

The drawback to these strategies is that customers who buy the old product in the period immediately preceding the launch of the new can feel disappointed, Apple and a few other companies have learned that the best tactic to deal with this is to offer a customer a free exchange, or at least in the case of a new price an opportunity to pay the difference for the the new product, but this is entirely dependent on very tight control of the supply chain.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:58 am

OP - put a smile on your son's face with this:

After booting the Pi & logging in, get him to type

Code: Select all

pen<tab>
Upon pressing those three letters plus the tab key, the Pi will autocomplete it to "penguinspuzzle". Now press <enter> & enjoy the puzzles.

btw, this runs no better (or worse) on the Pi2.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:05 am

Kuja65 wrote:Now he feels cheated... Is he right? Was he cheated?
No, he was not cheated. The B+ was and is the perfect device to learn programming, in Scratch, Python or C++.
However if he promises to give the B+ to one of his schoolmates who deserves it most and if he reports here on his progress in programming, we will find a way to get him a Pi2. Send us your contact details in a PM. But, don't wait for thePi2, start programming now.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:10 am

jamesh wrote: The problem is I think the website doesn't get updated as much as it should. If you go back to earlier blog comments, then there is clearly wrong information in them that has never been updated. But I will flag this up for better handling, it could be done better.
The simple and only answer is NEVER give any future date that any new product might be available, don't hint at any confidential product plans before making a general announcement. If you make a pre-announcement don't give any possible availability date no matter how close it might be. If you hint at new product that will ALWAYS be taken as an announcement (that's the Osborne Effect). The classic RPF example is the "We'll have a DSI display available" - when did Eben say that[1]?

Folks have to accept that the moment you buy that new phone, new TV, new laptop, new Raspberry Pi that it is obsolete. But if you wait for the next shiny model, you'll wait for ever. There is no way to avoid the, "I've just bought widget X, they just released the widget X+" problem. You pays your money, you makes your choice and as soon as it's made it's history (give or take delivery lead time).


[1] The still non-existent display was first hinted at in May 2013.
http://raspi.tv/2014/raspberry-pi-offic ... pe-preview
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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:12 am

Heater wrote:I'm appalled by all these accusations of "lying", "cheating", "deception" etc on the part of the Foundation. "ingroups", "outgroups", WTF?
I think it is purely descriptive to say that there were people 'in the know' who could plan optimally at the expense of people then people that could not. That is the whole idea of evading the 'Osborne effect' by keeping customers in the dark.
Heater wrote:Makes it sound like the Foundation is some big, bad, evil, predatory organization out to screw people over. Crazy.
You exaggerate - nobody claimed that.
Heater wrote:Good grief this is a minor upgrade to an existing product. Happens all the time. It's provided at the same old price. It's nice but not essential.
For many it is a substantial update - the creators seems to thinks it is a great update. So there are customers who rather would have waited for some days, weeks, even months for the product that is clearly better for them.
Heater wrote:Has it occurred to anyone that perhaps even the Foundation did not know if this would happen and or when? Better not to shout about something until you know it works. Then there is the oft mentioned Osborne effect.
They knew that there was the chip available. They had even planned designed the B+ to such that the new chip would fit into the design when its time would come. Informing people where things are don't mean that a release day is announced 6 months before. There are reasonable compromises available.
Heater wrote:Now imagine what happens when you announce a new product, your current product sales drop to zero as everyone knows the new mode is available next month. Then you hit problems in the design, development, production, or supply of the new model that delays it for 6 months or a year! Oops, disaster all round. And everybody is miserable.
Actually the Osborne effect is likely to be a myth. There were other reasons for the downfall, like that Kaypro brought to the market a better and more affordable computer. Maybe the totally premature announcement of a future was an failed attempt to keep customers from not buying the competing product but wait for Osborne's response? And then they were unable to produce the promised new computers because of other bad business decisions.

Every one knows that Apple will introduce a new model within a year and still many buy the current model. Some won't buy the current model and rather wait for the next. It is not a real problem. Apple has not said, 'there will not be a new model for at least a year', and then released a new model within a month to cope with the 'Osborne effect'. The consequences of the Osborne effect are greatly exaggerated, starting with its part in the demise of Osborne computer corporation.

Anyway Raspberry Foundation tells that they are capable to produce smaller batches of products when needed - so they and their partners should have some leeway in adapting to the market demand.

Were all resellers informed or only some of them? If only some, then there were those that were not told had to bear the whole 'disaster'. Anyway, the idea is that people that would not buy the product if they would be better informed will buy the product when kept in the dark so that the 'in the know' won't suffer the consequences. That is a strategy that inevitable leaves some customers unhappy - not a good thing for building trust and brand loyalty. Then they come to this forum and read something akin to 'just deal with it' ,'grow up and accept the world for what it is'.
Heater wrote:So stop it everybody. The Foundation has served us proudly on this. Go forth and buy more Pi.

Note: I said "minor upgrade" on purpose. Not to denigrate the Pi 2 in any way. But really, I'm sure that for most things we currently use Pi's for you won't be seeing massive speed boosts. Sure it will enable some new things to be done that make use of vector floating point or more RAM, but basically it's the same machine. Which by the way I think is an excellent thing to be.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:13 am

jamesh wrote:Been pondering actually about how it could be done better.

Eben gets asked all the time when the next Pi comes out - what should he say? He cannot give exact dates, because there are none, and if he does say something that's inside a year the sales of previous models drop like a stone (Osbourne effect). So his only real options is to say nothing. Which some people would take as "very soon, better not buy a B+ now" and some would take as "there not planning anything, they are not serious, why buy at all?"

So if he does say something like 2017, because at the time that's what he expected, that gets reported everywhere. If plans change, does the Foundation then remove everything on their website, and thereby giving away that something is happening? And of course, there is no way of changing every reference to 2017 out there on the internet.

It really is a no-win situation.
There is no simple answer to keep everyone happy, but I think the best option is to be open about the "no comment" stance.
Maybe Eben could say something like" We don't comment on development schedules (look up 'Osbourn effect') but of course we think about the future".

Maybe the DPI screen is a better example. It's frustrating not knowing when it will be available, but at least we all know there is uncertainty. I think the latest hint is sometime this year and beyond that we will find out when it launches. That's OK.

If you said "Not for 2 years" then bring it out next week people will be upset.

If you say in an interview "maybe in 2 to 3 years time..." then I think that is different to putting the same statement on your official FAQ, and very different to posting "Not before 2016 ". Most people will understand that looking ahead 2-3 years is not an exact science and a lot of people will think to check the date of the interview to consider how current that estimate might be. It was something put out there some time ago, not something that stands on a FAQ you maintain that may not be dated and is likely to be taken as a currently valid piece of information. Most people will also think that looking 6 - 8 months ahead is a bit easier, and a statement of "not for 2 years" does mean "Definitely not in 6 months".

BTW, I bought a Pi 1B last month and a Pi2B this month and I have no complaints about that. The Pi1B is good kit that suits my purposes and I appreciate the Osborne issue.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:35 am

Sleep Mode zZ wrote: Actually the Osborne effect is likely to be a myth. There were other reasons for the downfall, like that Kaypro brought to the market a better and more affordable computer. Maybe the totally premature announcement of a future was an failed attempt to keep customers from not buying the competing product but wait for Osborne's response? And then they were unable to produce the promised new computers because of other bad business decisions.
There are those who rely on Robert X Cringeworthy's article (and therefore Wikipedia) to dismiss it as a myth, and then there are some of us old gits who were fortunate to have known, in person, people like Adam Osbourne, Gene Amdahl and the like who lived and worked in the industry during those days. I know whos opinion and beliefs on the matter carries more weight for me, having actually been there rather than reading about it on Wikipedia.

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Re: My 13 year old son feels cheated

Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:59 am

This is such a stupid storm in a tea cup I can believe it.

Nobody has been wronged here. Nobody has suffered loss.

Some people are miffed because they didn't get extra free goodies they think they are entitled to for some reason.

Well, for those who say "That, I am not forgiving." there is a clear solution. To be sure nothing so terrible happens again do not buy any more products from the foundation.

Meanwhile I say, a big thank you to all at the Raspberry Pi Foundation for your dedication, hard work and passion in bring the world the Raspberry Pi and the entire echo system around it.

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