Is Raspberry Pi destroying the old economy?

[NewAtlantis]

Will Raspberry Pi Creative Destruction kill the Old Economy?
I found this interesting memo.

"Companies that once revolutionized and dominated new industries – for example, Xerox in copiers[20] or Polaroid in instant photography have seen their profits fall and their dominance vanish as rivals launched improved designs or cut manufacturing costs. In technology the cassette tape replaced the 8-track, only to be replaced in turn by the compact disc, which was undercut by MP3 players, which will in turn eventually be replaced by newer technologies. Companies which made money out of technology which becomes obsolete do not necessarily adapt well to the business environment created by the new technologies."


What happens to compaq, dell, other computers companies? Bankruptcy or Layoffs.

[jamesh]

Which planet are you from? On Earth, this is basically 'the way it is'.

[NewAtlantis]

The economy scares me a lot.

New innovations come out. People get layoff. They can't pay off their mortgage, college, etc.

[redhawk]

That's life for you, companies who don't adapt to the changing market get left behind or die out.

(or turned into a museum) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TrPwOrf4sM

Richard S.

[jamesh]

The economy scares me a lot.

New innovations come out. People get layoff. They can't pay off their mortgage, college, etc.

Without new innovations, we would be living in caves. On a more modern note, New innovation is how the economy survives, how companies survive, and companies surviving is what brings in tax, and pays for pensions.

Although, yes, the economy is scary. But not because of innovation.

[Burngate]

Bring back gas lighting. Save the jobs of the gas-mantle makers. And the guy who cycled round lighting all the street-lights when I were a lad

[pluggy]

I don't think the Pi is much of a threat to computer companies. Apple sell more iPads in a week than the Pi has sold in 12 months. A million is a lot to an outfit like the foundation. Its a drop in the ocean in global computer sales.

[jackokring]

There was no economy, just a credit debt acceleration due to fractional reserve banking. Get over it, or get everyone in debt again. The Pi is a brilliant light of a tool.

[riffraff]

It may be the bump we've needed. It's the Apple I of this generation. The old economy is completely cornered by Microsoft. Even if they were economically viable, there's just no room for startups. They get crushed or swallowed immediately. The new(er) economy is the mobile market, and it's where the old economy was in late 1980's - early 1990's: a legal quagmire with heavyweights jostling each other for the lion's share in epic patent battles. Samsung is the most likely victor here.

Pi is something entirely different and may be the genesis of the next generation of machines. It's the first open-market native Linux machine. It's also being treated in a way we didn't expect - system as a component. Think of the Pi itself as the equivalent of a 8080, Z-80 or 6502 in '70's generation machines. What will turn the market on it's head are the things that will be created with them.

[tonyhughes]

Having read other threads the poster has started, this one is exactly the same quality as his others.

Take that as you will.

The Pi is great, and is not destroying anything.

[Jim JKla]

Think of the Pi itself as the equivalent of a 8080, Z-80 or 6502 in '70's generation machines. What will turn the market on it's head are the things that will be created with them.

I agree in priciple but not the RPi but the ARM chip used has been evolving quietly, it has come to term in the mobile phone and the foundation has harnest some of that potential as a force to be given to our young generation.

It just so happens the hobby community has taken it in and given it house room while it finds its feet.

Fortunately this has two effects.

1) The hobby community is debugging the OS's (multiple) bigtime.

2) The hobby community is providing a core of published help for free.

Neither of these will harm the younger uptake if they choose to take it on.

[riffraff]

My first Pi was delivered on Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, I'm using it as my primary PC. I've got my Debian SD tricked out with office and web utilities... so yes, in my world, it has destroyed the "old economy". Now for jumping into experimentation with RISC-OS or something else a little nearer to the hardware. That's the wonderful thing about the SD, change the card, change the entire character of the machine. Just like the good ol' days.

[riffraff]

@ NewAtlantis

"Companies which made money out of technology which becomes obsolete do not necessarily adapt well to the business environment created by the new technologies."

Tell that to "RIM", er, ah "Blackberry". Apparently they didn't get the memo. Let's sit back and watch. I think they could fare a little better in the coming year than Microsoft or Apple .

[cyrano]

"Companies that once revolutionized and dominated new industries – for example, Xerox in copiers or Polaroid in instant photography have seen their profits fall and their dominance vanish as rivals launched improved designs or cut manufacturing costs.

Xerox didn't develop xerography. They bought it, patented it, left it in the cupboard for more than 20 years and were astonished to see it making loads of money when they finally decided to release it. Polaroid never developed anything new after the kludge they called instant photography.

In technology the cassette tape replaced the 8-track, only to be replaced in turn by the compact disc, which was undercut by MP3 players, which will in turn eventually be replaced by newer technologies. Companies which made money out of technology which becomes obsolete do not necessarily adapt well to the business environment created by the new technologies."

Companies don't adapt at all. Unless there is a compelling reason to do so. If they detect their downfall before it is too late, they might adapt. Most don't because they aren't led by inventors, or even people who understand technology. They are led by people who understand the shareholders' mindset. And that's dangerous. It creates nothing new, because creating means risk taking. Something shareholders want to avoid at all cost.

The biggest danger to innovation is the patenting system. The big boys will patent anything. Without really developing anything, since that is deemed to expensive. And that is a serious hindrance to innovation.

The Raspberry could be disruptive technology. But only history will tell...

[Rene_is_I]

Is the pi killing the old economy? No but as mentioned before, the ARM is and about time.
The old economy belongs to an era of dinosaur corporations who think they are invinceble but surprise, surprise.
Xerox, IBM and coutless others have gone or pretty much gone
and there will be others such as Nokia and Microsoft.
Yes Microsoft, they will never totally disapear but they
have seen the light and are focusing on the average
user and the desktop.
Even a few years ago one saw countless computer based
commercial and industrial products which ran Windows.
Things like cash machines, digital signage and even
Agilent used XPe as the OS in a whole range of test equipment.
How many do we see now?
Microsoft simply cannot compete with ARM+Linux on
so many devices.
They will try all sorts of gimmicks and underhanded schemes
but will fail thus being relegated to the desktop market.
Don't think too many tears will be shed over that.

[Rene_is_I]

Well put Cyrano.

[cyrano]

Thank you, René. It's just my opinion and you probably know what they say about those...

[Jim JKla]

Didn't Apple just try to have a patent on a rectangle with rounded corners.

The big boys are seeing big bucks from patent legalities one of the wonders of open source is its ability to scupper that by making inovation public domain owend by no single entity.

The patent law has become not fit for purpose because patents are sat on for there infringement earning potential.

Linus Torvalds has shown the way forward.

OK Linux never made him a multi millionaire but he is globaly recognised as shown in his collection of part of the Millennium Technology Prize.

[ski522]

Linus Torvalds has shown the way forward.

OK Linux never made him a multi millionaire but he is globaly recognised as shown in his collection of part of the Millennium Technology Prize.

Linus Torvalds has a net worth of $150 million....sort of falls into my book as a multi-millionaire...you must have very high standards. Although he has proven you don't need to be a patent whore to make money.

[Jim JKla]

Linux never made him a multi millionaire

Never said he was not only that Linux was not the direct source of his wealth.

[Rene_is_I]

It's true that companies are abusing patents by just
siting on them waiting for others to fall foul of them.
There should be a law that says that if a technology or
method is not implemented within 2 years from the
patent date then it lapses.
Simple solution to stop patent whores.

[Jim JKla]

It's not going to happen to change the law you need the help of the lawyers.

Thats like Turkeys voting for Chrismass there are too many pattent lawyers shuffling the deck in their favour.

[Rene_is_I]

How can you insult turkeys like that?
Comparing them to lawyers.
Yes you are correct that we unfortunatley need lawyers
to change the law but never under estimate the power
of public pressure and opinion.

[ski522]

Linux never made him a multi millionaire

Never said he was not only that Linux was not the direct source of his wealth.

Semantics at this point though. I understand what you're trying to say, but it's somewhat incorrect...Linux did make him money. Red Hat and VA Linux presented Torvalds with stock options in gratitude for the creation of Linux. In 1999, both companies went public and Torvalds' net worth shot up to roughly $20 million. Okay, maybe the money isn't from charging for the OS, but it was Linux that created a good portion of his wealth.

[Jim JKla]

Sorry if you want to nitpick over this.

I thought my implication was that he did not sell Linux to make his wealth.

A point I would consider obvious in that you can download and install Linux on your RPi without paying any royalties.

So no it's not in my opinion destroying the old economy