MalPi
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:32 pm

Hello all,
is there any info. when the 4Gb version will be available again in the UK ?
or is that a 'length of piece of string' question ! :)

Reason for my question :-
I am new to the forum as you can see, been following lots of interesting topics and learning what the RPi is all about. Especially interesting are the discussions about desktop usage and cooling.
So, to cut a long story short, it seems that I have taken too long with my reading-up and now the two UK suppliers pointed to by the RPi website are out of stock of the 4Gb :(
My puzzle is, should I make-do and learn with a 1 or 2Gb version ( I guess they would be more than sufficient for learning linux and a bit of websurfing? ) for a few weeks/months and then, if needed, buy a 4Gb later.
That would be a bit daft if the 4Gb was going to be re-stocked in a few days !!
Last edited by MalPi on Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:42 pm

hippy wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:59 am
RPT appears to favour going on gut instinct and making their own predictions which historically have underestimated demand, which has led to shortages immediately after release.
  1. How do you do extensive market research without revealing the range of options that are under consideration for the Pi4?
  2. Do you really think RPT are investing millions of pounds on "gut instinct" when they could do market research?
  3. As has been mentioned before, building stock before release costs money, both for the stock and for storage.
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DirkS
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:55 pm

MalPi wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:32 pm
is there any info. when the 4Gb version will be available again in the UK ?
No

trejan
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:57 pm

MalPi wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:32 pm
So, to cut a long story short, it seems that I have taken too long with my reading-up and now the two UK suppliers pointed to by the RPi website are out of stock of the 4Gb :(
Both of them regularly get stock delivered.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:57 pm

How To ask Questions :- http://www.catb.org/esr/faqs/smart-questions.html
WARNING - some parts of this post may be erroneous YMMV

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hippy
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:26 pm

davidcoton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:42 pm
hippy wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:59 am
RPT appears to favour going on gut instinct and making their own predictions which historically have underestimated demand, which has led to shortages immediately after release.
How do you do extensive market research without revealing the range of options that are under consideration for the Pi4?
The same way as every other company does it without revealing their plans.
davidcoton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:42 pm
Do you really think RPT are investing millions of pounds on "gut instinct" when they could do market research?
It does seem to me that they are relying on gut instinct and own predictions more than market research. If they have done market research it does not seem to have delivered accurate predictions of what demand will be in the past.
davidcoton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:42 pm
As has been mentioned before, building stock before release costs money, both for the stock and for storage.
Agreed. But failing to meet market demand also has its negative consequences. The art is in finding the balance.

But we are just going over the same ground as every time a Pi product is released and there's been a shortage.
Last edited by hippy on Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MalPi
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:30 pm

RaTTuS wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:57 pm
https://www.okdo.com/product-choice/pi4models/
in stock
Thanks @RaTTuS, most useful.

not seen them before, I must be going blind or something, or maybe time to update my browser (Kmeleon, has played tricks like that on me before :( )

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RaTTuS
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:37 pm

you get to them via rsdelivers
i.e.
https://uk.rs-online.com/web/ search for raspberry pi etc...
I got my 4GB from them on day one

[edit] fixed link due to bad me
Last edited by RaTTuS on Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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trejan
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:46 pm

There is something strange with OKdo and raspberrypi.org. On raspberrypi.org if you select UK and 4GB it links to https://www.okdo.com/shop/raspberry-pi/ ... oard-only/ which shows out of stock but if you search for the same model then it shows https://www.okdo.com/shop/raspberry-pi/ ... dr4-sdram/ which is in stock.

The URLs are nearly identical except the out of stock one has "-board-only" appended to the description which makes it use SKU 1822096-1 instead of 1822096 which is available.

Somebody needs to ping the raspberrypi.org web devs to fix that URL.

MalPi
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:57 pm

Thanks, rattus & trejan,
till now I thought Pihut and Pimoroni were the only two.
Last edited by MalPi on Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pimaxin
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:04 pm

Where can I get the 4gb board only in the US?

trejan
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:24 pm

Pimaxin wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:04 pm
Where can I get the 4gb board only in the US?
Go to https://www.raspberrypi.org/products/ra ... odel-b-4gb and select United States. CanaKit in Canada and Vilros in New Jersey are showing in stock for the 4GB model.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:22 pm

trejan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:46 pm
There is something strange with OKdo and raspberrypi.org. On raspberrypi.org if you select UK and 4GB it links to https://www.okdo.com/shop/raspberry-pi/ ... oard-only/ which shows out of stock but if you search for the same model then it shows https://www.okdo.com/shop/raspberry-pi/ ... dr4-sdram/ which is in stock.

The URLs are nearly identical except the out of stock one has "-board-only" appended to the description which makes it use SKU 1822096-1 instead of 1822096 which is available.

Somebody needs to ping the raspberrypi.org web devs to fix that URL.
Hi, OKdo have sent us new links today which will be updated tomorrow (Friday) morning

jerrm
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:28 pm

jerrm wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:03 pm
Same at my Micro Center. 1GB boards have been almost always in stock. But no 2GB/4GB boards. I managed to grab a 2GB board early on, but I don't think my store has had them back in since.
Both MicroCenters here show 2GB stock today just to prove me wrong.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am

We don't do market research as such, as someone above says, how do you do it without giving away plans and timescales? You could anonymise the questionnaires, "What's your optimum RAM figure for a SBC, 1,2, or 4"? but that means less valuable data, because most people would just say the largest number!

As for the demand, we did make more 2GB up front. because 2GB is the optimum for price/performance for desktop use. However, people seem more than happy to pay another $10 despite them not really needing to spend it. That would be difficult to determine via surveys I think.

But, by now the initial production batch in months in the past, so even if we had known the 4GB would be more popular, we would still be struggling to satisfy demand. I have no idea of the supply line situation, but my suspicion would be lack of 4GB parts to make the boards. Perhaps if we had KNOWN far enough in advance that the 4GB would be so popular that supply line would be fulfilled better - I don't know. But again, I don't believe we could KNOW with enough confidence. When you are talking the levels of cash required here, it's better to be careful.

So, why DO people want the 4GB, when the 2GB would do the job?
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:01 am

The Odroid-N2 came with a choice of 2GB or 4GB and I believe the 4GB was far more popular.
jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
So, why DO people want the 4GB, when the 2GB would do the job?
Human nature :) Why do people drive 300BHP cars when a 100BHP car gets you from a to b easily?
Seriously ...

In case it doesn't do the job for some as yet unplanned project in the future.

Because Linux uses spare memory for disk cache, always a good thing especially with slow SD cards.
You can increase that usage with things like commit=600 on the ext4 mount line.
Save wear and tear on the SD card and speed things up.

You can mount /tmp and /var/log (say) in tmpfs (virtual memory).
Again, saves wear and tear on the SD card and speed things up a little.

You can do large builds with make -j5 (say) happy in the knowledge it will never swap.

Avoids faffing with zram.

The first $10 buys you an extra 1GB, the second $10 buys you an extra 2GB, so its better value :)

The Pi4 which is being marketed as a "desktop computer" is so cheap in comparison to Intel PC's or Mac's that an extra $10 for double the memory is hardly worth thinking about.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:02 am

jahboater wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:01 am
The Odroid-N2 came with a choice of 2GB or 4GB and I believe the 4GB was far more popular.
jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
So, why DO people want the 4GB, when the 2GB would do the job?
Human nature :) Why do people drive 300BHP cars when a 100BHP car gets you from a to b easily?
Seriously ...

In case it doesn't do the job for some as yet unplanned project in the future.

Because Linux uses spare memory for disk cache, always a good thing especially with slow SD cards.
You can increase that usage with things like commit=600 on the ext4 mount line.
Save wear and tear on the SD card and speed things up.

You can mount /tmp and /var/log (say) in tmpfs (virtual memory).
Again, saves wear and tear on the SD card and speed things up a little.

You can do large builds with make -j5 (say) happy in the knowledge it will never swap.

Avoids faffing with zram.

The first $10 buys you an extra 1GB, the second $10 buys you an extra 2GB, so its better value :)

The Pi4 which is being marketed as a "desktop computer" is so cheap in comparison to Intel PC's or Mac's that an extra $10 for double the memory is hardly worth thinking about.
Fair points all. FWIW, I always thought the 4GB would be the big seller for similar reasons, but I am not in charge of production!

I don't know why the 4GB production isn't keeping up with demand, it may be that the fab cannot make the 4GB parts fast enough, or just that the demand is so high, even when production is solely dedicated to 4GB we still cannot meet demand. That's actually a more difficult thing to solve as bringing up a new production line is long winded and expensive, and with no guarantee that the demand will stay high.
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:13 am

With the current situation right now for the supply of the RPi4B... it could be by the end of this year when I can get my hands on even one (and if I am lucky....) :lol:

heck! even now I cant even get a RPi3A+ from where I am..... :cry:
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:18 am

I ordered mine Sat July 27 and just got it yesterday 1 Aug
From CanaKit

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:23 am

Nuncio wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:18 am
I ordered mine Sat July 27 and just got it yesterday 1 Aug
From CanaKit
I ordered mine within a minute or so after I saw the announcement.
Glad I did - I got a 4GB model the next day.
Now I cant get a second one of course.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:27 am

People on a tight budget will go for the lowest cost option.

People on a not so tight budget will go for the best option they can afford.

Hardly anyone will go for the mid-range option unless it is the only one available to them.

This much I do know about marketing.
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:55 am

Folks in the US ordering from the US site of OkDo.com:

You may wish to read this. I ordered a Pi4b 4GB + power supply from them yesterday Aug 1 @ about 5:13 PM (BST) and cancelled it 4 hours later at about 7:15pm. I sent them an email requesting cancellation as well as filled in their online cancellation form. I have received no response regarding the cancellation but about 7:50AM today (Aug 2) they emailed me saying they have shipped my order! So basically almost 15 hours after I sent in the cancellation request, they shipped me my cancelled order. Their online policy says an order can be cancelled even within the first month after delivery so long as everything is returned with no damage. Very strange that they would do this. Had they cancelled it in time, they could have saved some hassle all around.

I have sent an email to support@okdo.com about this experience but I have no response so far. I also publicize it here because they are an authorized reseller and potential customers in the US should know what to expect.

So US folks, if you order from them, please be very very sure you're not going to cancel your order and double check everything! Meanwhile if anyone in the San Francisco Bay Area wants a Pi4b 4GB in about 12-15 days, you can buy it from me for the price I paid!

[Update: They responded and said they couldn't cancel due to "the fast turn around of orders" in their warehouse but once I receive the order I can cancel it and return it. It is unfortunate that 15 hours of warning was not enough but it's good of them that they responded and are willing to honor their refund policy.]

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:49 am

jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
We don't do market research as such, as someone above says, how do you do it without giving away plans and timescales?
Market research companies will be able to give you the answer to that, will be able to explain how they achieve that for their clients. It is not that hard to achieve; it is mostly about how the questions are asked and framed.
jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
So, why DO people want the 4GB, when the 2GB would do the job?
A number of reasons.

1GB comes free, 2GB = +$10 per GB, 4GB = +$6.6 per GB, so 4GB appears to offer the best value for money.

It's not about doing the job, it's about being able to do the job in the future.

2GB may be enough now for someone's needs now, but what of that future, what if their needs change ? The extra 2GB is insurance against having bought something sub-optimal to start with. Spending an extra $10 now feels better than finding one had wasted $45.

There's nothing better than 4GB for now, so buying that means there can be no regrets at buying something smaller later. It increases certainty that the right thing was purchased, reduces doubt about whether what one is buying will be suitable enough.

1GB for headless, 2GB for desktop, 4GB for power-user is fine in principle, but the majority of people won't be buying for a specific use, won't want to restrict themselves to a specific use. They want to be sure they can do anything they want to do and not be constrained by having made a poor decision when purchasing.

1GB or 2GB may be enough, but there may be times when 4GB is needed. Most will see it as better to have that extra and not use it than not have it when it is needed.

It's the same as why buy a 64GB or 32GB SD Card when 16GB or 8GB will do ? It's only when one comes to need that extra does one find it was false economy to have bought smaller than one now needs.

They are the same forces which lead consumers to not buy the pack of something they need but the pack which is twice the size for a few pennies more.

I believe the only way 4GB wouldn't have been the most popular version is if you had produced an 8GB version. Or perhaps were selling the 4GB at $65 or higher.
Last edited by hippy on Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:56 am

hippy wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:49 am
jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
We don't do market research as such, as someone above says, how do you do it without giving away plans and timescales?
Market research companies will be able to give you the answer to that, will be able to explain how they achieve that for their clients. It is not that hard to achieve; it is mostly about how the questions are asked and framed.
At great expense. I am certain that the cost of the research would outweigh any benefit, simply because I do not believe we could have upped production to the levels required to NOT have a demand outstripping supply situation. ie It didn't matter which device was the most popular, production capacity would always be too small. And I doubt market research would be able to give figures on total demand.
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hippy
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Re: 4gb - 4B Demand must be high.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:14 pm

jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:56 am
hippy wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:49 am
jamesh wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:46 am
We don't do market research as such, as someone above says, how do you do it without giving away plans and timescales?
Market research companies will be able to give you the answer to that, will be able to explain how they achieve that for their clients. It is not that hard to achieve; it is mostly about how the questions are asked and framed.
At great expense. I am certain that the cost of the research would outweigh any benefit, simply because I do not believe we could have upped production to the levels required to NOT have a demand outstripping supply situation. ie It didn't matter which device was the most popular, production capacity would always be too small. And I doubt market research would be able to give figures on total demand.
You are right. Where limited production capacity means demand will always outstrip supply, and shortages have to be expected, Market Research will have less value.

It could however help ensure that production were building what was most wanted, but if it's all selling anyway, that's good. Even if that might mean profits are down on what they could have been or fewer people are as happy as they would have been.

But at the end of the day it is up to the Foundation to decide what they want to do.

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