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Vindicator
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:10 am

Since by the time this batch sells there will still be 80,000 of us without a pi when would the earliest the next production be able to be produced and will it be the same size as this one or a larger order.

It seems that march is going to be on us before the first ones go on sale if any testing is done (shipment to Raspi then testing then release in 9 days      march sell I think).
If you are more worried about ,spelling, punctuation or grammar you have probably already missed the point so please just move on.

schott12521
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:30 am

Where did you get you 80,000 number? There are going to be roughly 10,000 for sale, and theres roughly 10,00 forum members and we can assume a forum member=a loyal buyer who also follows the 1 per customer at this time.

timgiles
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 8:08 am

Schott,

Maybe 10k+ forum members, but there are plenty more on the mailing list, RSS Feed etc... I think it is safe to say that there are more than 10k people in the world who know, want and lust after a RPi!

But as has been repeated like a mantra, there will be batch after batch produced. Chinese manufacturing isnt like British (or American ) - they dont strike, they dont pick fluff out of their behind, they get the job done! So if the next batch is 20k or 50k, it will only be a few weeks before the shop is refilled.

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grumpyoldgit
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:25 am

schott12521 said:


Where did you get you 80,000 number? There are going to be roughly 10,000 for sale, and theres roughly 10,00 forum members and we can assume a forum member=a loyal buyer who also follows the 1 per customer at this time.


There are over 80,000 on the mailing list.

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Robert_M
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:28 am

Q: When does the second production batch start?

A: Magic 8 Ball sez "After the first batch."
I sometimes ride my Pi to the Forum.

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rurwin
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 9:57 am

There may be 80,000 on the mailing list, and 10,000 here. But my guess is that many of those will not order from the first batch, having lost interest, found something else, not have ready funds etc.

I think the first batch will sell quickly, but a significant fraction of those wanting to order will be able to.

I hope production can be scaled up quickly, because if the foundation only has enough money to order this first batch, it is not going to be quick. Based on Liz's blog post a while ago, the profit from each board is less than 25% of the production cost, and since it seems to take a month from placing the order to getting the boards to sell:

1st March: 10,000 boards

1st April: 13,000 boards

1st May: 18,000 boards

1st June: 24,000 boards

1st July: 32,000 boards

1st August: 42,000 boards

1st September: 56,000 boards

Which means it will be July before 80,000 orders are shipped, and that ignores other calls on the foundation's funds, such as building a support structure.

Even at that slow rate, it should be possible to have a credible capacity by September, which must be the important deadline. I hope that there are other funds available to allow a faster ramp, but 10,000 boards costs somewhere around £170,000. If the foundation is to put an order in for 100,000 boards they need to find a couple of million quid from somewhere.

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Gert van Loo
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:12 am

With that volume it won't take long for some far-east manufacturer to start making clones. They will be called Riseborry-Paws. The chip will be  BMC3528.

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Burngate
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:13 am

What I would be interested in being told is this:

If the first batch sells out in an hour, and I'm unlucky, and the demand for the next batch looks like it's going to be big enough to maintain the one-per-customer paradigm, would the lucky 10,000 first-batch customers be barred from buying in the second batch?

Not that I expect an answer, just laying plans, being pessimistic, ...

mole125
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:32 pm

Burngate said:


What I would be interested in being told is this:

If the first batch sells out in an hour, and I'm unlucky, and the demand for the next batch looks like it's going to be big enough to maintain the one-per-customer paradigm, would the lucky 10,000 first-batch customers be barred from buying in the second batch?

Not that I expect an answer, just laying plans, being pessimistic, ...


From what Liz has said in other places the answer is yes - the 1 per customer restriction will stay in place until it is no longer needed. The interesting thing will be how big will the rush be when this is lifted - will the policy need to go from 1 per customer, to 2p/c, 4p/c...

hippy
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:37 pm

Burngate said:

would the lucky 10,000 first-batch customers be barred from buying in the second batch?
Sounds good in principle but probably would not achieve a lot in practice and just add to the complexity of handling purchases. I expect there's a good many who have thought about tilting their odds of getting one by cajoling friends, family, colleagues and neighbours into trying to buy R-Pi on their behalf so any scheme to introduce 'more fairness' is probably ultimately doomed.

Apart from the 500 Nokia sponsored Qt developers and others who have justification for early entitlement a first come first served grab is probably as fair as any other system. One could run a lottery to avoid the mad rush but that adds complexity.

It's only really an issue in the short term, until supply matches demand, and the Foundation will have that under control.

adlambert

Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:40 pm

1 per customer isn't going to be very easily enforceable. Personally, I only need one and that is all I am going to buy. But if I wanted to I could call on a lot of friends and family who would happily take delivery for me.

Lynbarn
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:43 pm

hippy said:

It's only really an issue in the short term, until supply matches demand, and the Foundation will have that under control.
According to a post I saw earlier (IIRC, from either Gert or Liz), the planned ramp-up of production will be fairly steep, as they are aiming (no promises though!!!) to be able to sell 100+ per customer by July.

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Chromatix
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:48 pm

I suspect that it will be "safe" to lift the 1/c rule just as soon as the entire stock doesn't get sold out within 48h.  The aim of it is, after all, to make sure that as many people as possible can get in on the action.

If the stock begins to last for, say, a week after arrival, then there is clearly sufficient opportunity for most people to get one, and the hobbyists (and families) who want more than one can get stuck in and the resulting great profitssss can be used to help ramp up production as quickly as possible.

I also suspect that unusually large orders (eg. more than ten in one go) would still be scrutinised a bit to make sure that it isn't coming from a hoarder/scalper.  A school ordering 30 or a hundred would be considered perfectly normal, I think.
The key to knowledge is not to rely on people to teach you it.

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rurwin
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 1:37 pm

Lynbarn said:

According to a post I saw earlier (IIRC, from either Gert or Liz), the planned ramp-up of production will be fairly steep, as they are aiming (no promises though!!!) to be able to sell 100+ per customer by July.
Even given my slow ramp above, they will have made 97,000 by July 1st. I do not believe they will still be limiting sales by then, and even if 80,000 people do want one, I believe most of those will only ever buy one.

Which means that even in the worst case, there will be 17,000 boards available for bulk buying. I doubt there will be 170 people wanting to buy 100, and even if there are, there will be even more boards close behind.

(If I was involved, from May onwards, I'd be ordering batches of 10,000 at closer intervals rather than a huge batch every month. So the next 100 bulk buyers would only have to wait a week or so.)

It would be nice if every school in the country ordered a hundred or a thousand, but I doubt that will happen. If it did, short term funds would be available.

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Burngate
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:49 pm

One way they (we're talking here as if they can't hear us: the odd giggle in the background shows they can) could deal after the first few batches is say if you want a hundred or more, put your money up-front.

I'm assuming I'll not get one in the first batch - I'm a lazy lie-a-bed. I'll try for the second batch, and an A when they come out.

But as Heinlein said, "Stranger in a Strange Land"

No - wrong title. Try "I Will Fear No Evil"

Hm. "Time Enough For Pi". That's the one.

mgmt_idiot
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:31 pm

I don't see the need for the funding for future production to depend directly on paying for it from past sales. If the demand is clearly demonstrated, getting funds to ramp production straight from 10k to 100k or whatever, wouldn't be difficult to find.'

I'm still not sure about whether to get one from the first batch. I think I may play with Fedora on the x86 until I can buy a larger number of RasPi models. But probably I won't be able to stop myself from trying to buy one when the announcement is made.

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grumpyoldgit
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:50 pm

I don't quite think you have the grasp of it. Companies can have a fantastic product and demand for it but unless they have the cash or the credit they can't pay for the raw materials to make it. Cash flow is everything. Many of the companies that have gone bust during the current recession have done so because their banks withdrew credit so suddenly couldn't pay staff or materials.

Hopefully the Foundation have an understanding bank manager

Chris.Rowland
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:52 pm

Trying to expand too quickly has caused cash flow problems that have killed companies.

There's all sorts of things that can go wrong leaving the company holding a vast amount of unsold stock that has to be paid for.  Credit runs out and they go belly up.

My guess is that the initial demand will be less than the size of the mailing list but I don't know if it will be 5% or 50%.

Let's trust the Foundation to do what works for them.

Chris

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mkopack
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:39 pm

Keep in mind that the profit margins for the foundation on this thing are QUITE low…

And given that there is an unknown demand level for these, I would think they would sell these first 10,000, and once those are nearly (all) gone, put in another order for a second 10,000… They'll probably keep doing it that way for a few months until either they see demand continue for a while, taper off, or start seeing big orders (like from a school district for 5,000 or something like that…) At THAT point they might do bigger runs…

I can't imagine they'd want to make the 2nd or even 3rd production run be for 50,000 units because if demand suddenly tanks, they're going to be left holding  alot of these things and not be able to sell them.

So it's all going to depend upon demand cycles. And how the initial batches are received and reviewed by 3rd parties will have a lot to do with how well subsequent demanded will be... If a lot of bad reviews come out from this first 10,000 batch, I would expect demand to suddenly evaporate. Not saying I'm hoping for that (I'm not!), just saying they need to make a good showing initially and have good reviews get out to keep the demand high.

IDE
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:05 pm

One thing we can all agree on: it will be one hell of a browser refresh battle for when the web store opens up, I want to be first to order one!

Chris.Rowland
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:43 pm

We all need to bear in mind this isn't a new kidney...

Chris

TheEponymousBob
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:58 pm

Chris Rowland said:
We all need to bear in mind this isn"t a new kidney...


Quite; its much more important than that.

(With thanks to Bill Shankly)

JoeDaStudd
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:45 pm

I can see the shipping and handling as well as general order issues really messing up the batch releases.

If you say 2 minutes to pack, label, pigeon hole and update the status of the order. Its over 330 hours for the first batch. That's 10 people working a full week just to ship the first batch.
Add R-Pi's getting lost or damaged in the post as well as general queries and they will have there work cut out for the first month without even worrying about the next batch.

Remember after the first batch is opened the option to donate will also go live. Which I would presume would go towards the later batches.

TheEponymousBob
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:50 pm

JoeDaStudd said:

I can see the shipping and handling as well as general order issues really messing up the batch releases.

If you say 2 minutes to pack, label, pigeon hole and update the status of the order. Its over 330 hours for the first batch. That"s 10 people working a full week just to ship the first batch.


I may be wrong, but I seem to recall reading that the foundation will be using a third-party fulfillment house once sales go live, which should mitigate this.

Benedict White
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Re: When does the second production batch start

Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:57 pm

Robert_M said:


Q: When does the second production batch start?

A: Magic 8 Ball sez "After the first batch."


You assume neutrinos can never travel faster than light, and the jury is out on that one.

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