jamesh
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:20 am

Please report any posts you are unhappy with and a mod will clean up as necessary.
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:48 pm

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:25 pm
If a revision 1.2 was already available, there would be no need for Jamesh to keep hush hush about it.
Conversely; if there wasn't a 1.2 it would be easy enough to come out and say that and put the entire thread to rest. I can see legitimate reasons to not admit 1.2 exists if it does, but I can't see any real reason not to admit it doesn't if it doesn't.

But, regardless of whether it exists or not, it seems ridiculous to me to accuse people of inventing claims of having a 1.2 with no hard evidence either way and those who do know if 1.2 exists or not aren't saying.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:31 pm

hippy wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:48 pm
Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:25 pm
If a revision 1.2 was already available, there would be no need for Jamesh to keep hush hush about it.
... I can see legitimate reasons to not admit 1.2 exists if it does, but I can't see any real reason not to admit it doesn't if it doesn't..
Maybe Jamesh is as much in the dark as the rest of us!

On some desk hidden in the depths of Pi Towers is a scrap of paper with "1.2" written on it. Jamesh has seen it, but hasn't been told its relevance (need to know, and all that), so he's decided upon "No need to No"

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:40 pm

Burngate wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:31 pm
On some desk hidden in the depths of Pi Towers is a scrap of paper with "1.2" written on it. Jamesh has seen it, but hasn't been told its relevance (need to know, and all that), so he's decided upon "No need to No"
Is that piece of paper in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'?

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:18 pm

trejan wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:40 pm
Burngate wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:31 pm
On some desk hidden in the depths of Pi Towers is a scrap of paper with "1.2" written on it. Jamesh has seen it, but hasn't been told its relevance (need to know, and all that), so he's decided upon "No need to No"
Is that piece of paper in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'?
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:05 pm

trejan wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:40 pm
Burngate wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:31 pm
On some desk hidden in the depths of Pi Towers is a scrap of paper with "1.2" written on it. Jamesh has seen it, but hasn't been told its relevance (need to know, and all that), so he's decided upon "No need to No"
Is that piece of paper in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'?
It also has Vogon poetry written on it.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:22 pm

jamesh wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:20 am
Please report any posts you are unhappy with and a mod will clean up as necessary.
I might be tickling the dragon's tail a bit, but what if I'm unhappy with posts by Raspberry Pi Engineers & Forum Moderators who aren't offering any information on the new revision 1.2 Pi4 board?

;) :P [/ducks and runs away]
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:58 pm

HawaiianPi wrote: Raspberry Pi Engineers & Forum Moderators who aren't offering any information on the new revision 1.2 Pi4 board?
I have no idea what revision any of the electronics in my home are or what the changes between different revisions are.

The differences between revisions and what revision is currently in distribution is not something I pay attention to. It's a pi. It does the job. If you can't tell whether there's a new revision or what the difference is, why does it matter? If there's a difference that matters, people will notice and ask about it sooner or later anyway.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:22 am

ehem wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:10 am
Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:36 am
What makes you think an 8gb Pi4b will ever see the light of day and what on earth do you need that much ram on a Pi for, it's not a professional video editing software suite.
While it was very much a partial quote and out of context, are you of the opinion that 640K should be enough for everyone? There are always things which can use more memory.
Of course not. I was even one of the people constantly complaining about the 1gb limit of previous Pi models.

I merely meant that 8gb of RAM is overkill on a Pi, you're not likely to be able to use it all without a bottleneck elsewhere in the Pi holding you back.
55:55:44:44:4C
52:4C:52:42:41

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Gavinmc42
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:52 am

Pi's have come from 256MB model A's to 4GB Pi4's in 7 years, 16times bigger.
Assuming Pi's will be still around in 7 years, then 64GB Pi's are not outside possibility.
If memory reaches it's single chip Moore's limit, it may only be 16GB or 32GB.
That's a lot of memory, doubling every two years?
So 8GB is 2 years away?
Maybe even less than 18months from now?
Will that be a Pi5? if so then it will need to be designed to address 4 times the ram.
That might need two ram chips to get the bus seed higher.
Price and PCB routeing issues will decide that.

So this 1.2 version thing is so minor why is it being talked about?
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:01 am

Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:52 am
Pi's have come from 256MB model A's to 4GB Pi4's in 7 years, 16times bigger.
Assuming Pi's will be still around in 7 years, then 64GB Pi's are not outside possibility.
That assumes the growth is, on average, a linear function...

Seriously... There are, so far as I can tell, two major reasons whey there is no visible prospect of an 8GB Pi4B. The first is...the right RAM package doesn't exist. The second is that, if the package existed, it would drive the price too high to sustain enough volume for the board to be economically viable. Both of these constraints may change in time.

For now...there are plenty of uses for a Pi4B1. For most "everyday" uses, a Pi4B2 is just fine. For those uses where memory hogging programs are being run, or people are willing to throw money at the hardware in hopes of avoiding any possible memory bottleneck, there is the Pi4B4. Anyone who just wants bragging rights will have to wait for an 8GB RAM package to exist at a reasonable price.

(Back when rocks were soft and I was a student at Cal, one of the CDC 6400 machines on campus has an extra 500K (60b) words of memory. It was purchased by the Forestry Department and nobody could figure out what they wanted it for. The standing joke was that they were counting trees.)

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:55 am

That assumes the growth is, on average, a linear function...
Exponential?
But if we only include the $35 Pi's then the memory has only doubled in 7 years.
Or price has doubled for 4 times the ram?

The trend is clearly there, more memory for the same price or more memory for extra $$.
Saying there will never be a 8GB or bigger ram is ignoring the evidence of history.
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:06 am

Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:55 am
But if we only include the $35 Pi's then the memory has only doubled in 7 years.
Doubled? From my 256MB Pi 1B to the 1GB Pi 4B?

One of my Pi 1Bs is in constant use running several important tasks (headless) with a 192/64 memory split. It's actually using about 32MB of the 192MB for Linux at the moment :)
That may go up when I upgrade it to Buster, which I am working on doing, but it's going to take a while to rebuild my apps to work on that.
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:39 am

Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:55 am
That assumes the growth is, on average, a linear function...
Exponential?
But if we only include the $35 Pi's then the memory has only doubled in 7 years.
Or price has doubled for 4 times the ram?

The trend is clearly there, more memory for the same price or more memory for extra $$.
Saying there will never be a 8GB or bigger ram is ignoring the evidence of history.
Making predictions is hard...especially about the future.

But, yes, the general trend is more memory for less money. It's subject to transient variation, but that's the overall trend. It's almost funny that people are puzzling over the idea of an 8GB Pi4B. Funny because, as I understand it, the SoC can actually address 16GB of external RAM.

My "touchstone" on the cost of memory is from when everyone was absolutely shocked that IBM dropped the price of mainframe memory from $75,000 per megabyte to a "mere" $15,000 per megabyte.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:33 am

W. H. Heydt
Making predictions is hard...especially about the future.
I made a prediction once.

Turned out it had already happened in the past. And I was wrong!
Memory in C++ is a leaky abstraction .

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:03 am

I predict Pi's will get more memory and go faster.
I cannot predict which year, but I can be 99% sure it will be before 2030.
Since I have not even tried overclocking faster is easy to predict :lol:
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:27 am

rpdom wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:06 am
Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:55 am
But if we only include the $35 Pi's then the memory has only doubled in 7 years.
Doubled? From my 256MB Pi 1B to the 1GB Pi 4B?
The model B was upgraded from 256MB to 512MB in October 2012, just over 7 years ago. In Febuary 2015 the 2B was released which doubled ram to 1GB.

https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/model- ... mb-of-ram/
https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/raspbe ... 2-on-sale/

Since Febuary 2015 retail ram prices have dropped by a factor of just over 2. https://jcmit.net/memoryprice.htm quotes a price of $0.0073 per megabyte for Febuary 2015 and $0.0029 per Megabyte for November 2019. That is retail prices though, which may not exactly reflect prices for buying chips on long-term supply contracts. Also I suspect cost reductions in the ram department may have been offset by cost increases elsewhere.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:08 am

plugwash wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:27 am
rpdom wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:06 am
Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:55 am
But if we only include the $35 Pi's then the memory has only doubled in 7 years.
Doubled? From my 256MB Pi 1B to the 1GB Pi 4B?
The model B was upgraded from 256MB to 512MB in October 2012, just over 7 years ago. In Febuary 2015 the 2B was released which doubled ram to 1GB.

https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/model- ... mb-of-ram/
https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/raspbe ... 2-on-sale/

Since Febuary 2015 retail ram prices have dropped by a factor of just over 2. https://jcmit.net/memoryprice.htm quotes a price of $0.0073 per megabyte for Febuary 2015 and $0.0029 per Megabyte for November 2019. That is retail prices though, which may not exactly reflect prices for buying chips on long-term supply contracts. Also I suspect cost reductions in the ram department may have been offset by cost increases elsewhere.
Not to break any commercial confidences, but very roughly if the original price of our 256MB of RAM is 1.0, then:

  • We upgraded to 512MB at a cost of 1.2 (when 256MB had declined to 0.6)
  • We upgraded to 1GB at a cost of 1.4 (when 512MB had declined to 0.7)
  • Currently 1GB costs us a bit under 1.0

So as you can see, it wobbles around a bit, and we usually breathe in a bit on overall margin to bring about the next doubling. Not shown in these numbers, or Peter's, is the massive RAM price spike between 2016 and 2018, which we were lucky to weather without passing on a (temporary) cost increase to the end user.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:24 am

The RPi god has made one of his rare appearances on the forum and revealed nothing about the existence or not in the wild of a RPI4B v1.2. So little chance of any of the RPi angels doing so. Just be patient people.
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:54 pm

drgeoff wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:24 am
The RPi god has made one of his rare appearances on the forum...
Like Buddha, we have to rub his tummy as we walk past.
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:52 pm

jamesh wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:54 pm
drgeoff wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:24 am
The RPi god has made one of his rare appearances on the forum...
Like Buddha, we have to rub his tummy as we walk past.
Does Liz know about this?

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:41 pm

Does Liz know about this?
Liz probably started it.
A subtle hint about the waistline and too many fancy lunches?

I got noticed by god and he corrected me :o
I feel so humble and forgetful.

The $35 Pi doubled memory twice. 256MB, 512MB, 1GB.
That means we can expect a $35 2GB version one day.
If ram prices fall a bit more, could it be on the 4B+ next year?
Production figures, seem to indicate the 2GB is the ignored middle child.

Those 3 years of high prices have slowed the Moore doubling?
When was the first 1GB Pi released?
Add about 3 years to that date?

Some interesting numbers from god.
Obviously having those numbers ready at hand, shows god's hand on the pulse of the ram market.

Still no idea what the 1.2 rev is?
A plot to drive the fans nuts and distract us from the slip about the secret research lab?
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:45 pm

Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:41 pm
Still no idea what the 1.2 rev is?
A plot to drive the fans nuts and distract us from the slip about the secret research lab?
That would be counter-productive. Obviously the lab is the Pi4B rev 1.2 research and development centre. :lol:
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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:01 pm

Gavinmc42 wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:41 pm
If ram prices fall a bit more, could it be on the 4B+ next year?
Since there is a Pi4B2, there would be no point to calling it a Pi4B+.
Production figures, seem to indicate the 2GB is the ignored middle child.
Which is rather odd, since the expectation that the Pi4B2 was going to be the bulk of sales.
Obviously having those numbers ready at hand, shows god's hand on the pulse of the ram market.
Probably because RAM is the least controllable major cost item in the BoM.

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Re: New Pi 4B v1.2?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:22 pm

W. H. Heydt wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:01 pm
Which is rather odd, since the expectation that the Pi4B2 was going to be the bulk of sales.
They didn't actually say that, just that the relative initial sales of the 2 and 4GB models were different to what they expected.

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