martinpyman
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:56 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:02 pm

Hi All,

What a great project, I'm looking forward to when the devices start shipping I'll definitely place an order.

One thing that is apparent from browsing the forums is people are concerned about the quantity for the first batch and whether the stock will last, I thought I'd open this post to discuss the things that could be done to monitor possible orders before the big day and do some forecasting.  One thing that instantly sprang to mind was the number of website hits, do your providers allow you to see this information and possibly build totals together.

Another would be a button on the front page "I will be buying one"

Please feel free to add to the suggestions

Martin

hellsing
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 4:11 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:37 pm

There will not have pre order.

Pi Face
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2011 12:24 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:05 pm

It is always difficult to judge sales of a new product before launch, I like your idea of a button to try to work it out. I think we can easily say the quantity coming in is going to go within the first day, leaving many without. But from what I've read stock levels will be replenished as fast as possible.

toalorama
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:11 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:14 pm

Or a topic like this one:

Buying = 1;

russ wall
Posts: 44
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:49 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:43 pm

Math Required! 10000 – (7407+10) x 1 =

What this possibly poor attempt at "sums" is saying is that from what I understand, when things are ready all members will get an E-mail offering a freshly baked pie! Well, assuming every member wants one, and NO you can't have more for now, there will be more than enough to fill our demands for the time being. If the initial release is focused on everyone who has shown even the slightest commitment by joining the pi club, even for a couple of days before going public, not only will everyone here on the forums be happy but it will give Liz and her band of little helpers a little less agro along the lines of "where's mine!"

Jaseman
Posts: 302
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:59 pm
Contact: Website

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:57 pm

Until someone gets their Mum to order one on their behalf, and all their friends at work, and their auntie and the bloke next door....

sylvan
Posts: 118
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 8:39 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:20 pm

Jaseman said:


Until someone gets their Mum to order one on their behalf, and all their friends at work, and their auntie and the bloke next door....



And everyone that has not joined the forum but is waiting to buy (I know several who just watch the website).

Jetpac
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:37 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:41 pm

Im just excited to get one! ideally i would like two, but im sure there will be more production runs

theHetman
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:42 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:55 pm

The Raspberry Pi Twitter feed has over 12,000 followers, so we know there is more interest than units for sale in the first batch, but of course all won't buy in the first rush.

Sylvain
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:54 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:19 pm

Didn't JamesH say a few days ago that there were 55 000 people on the mailing list ?

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meltwater
Posts: 1015
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:38 am

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:22 pm

It is a good bet that there are more than 10,000 but you would bet $350,000 on it or even your house?

Thankfully for us they are!
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hamjudo
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 3:25 pm

Re: Monitoring Demand

Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:47 pm

There is a very strong chance, that all 10,000 parts kits will make it through manufacturing, and become fully baked Pis. Likewise, most shipments make it from China to the UK without incident.

Sometimes things go wrong. If the thing that goes wrong is a systematic error, then it will go wrong the next time.

The Foundation wants to have tested Pi's in their hands, before they start taking orders. If it turns out that they have significantly less than 10,000 systems to sell, despite expending the capital to produce 10,000 systems, then issues will have to be addressed before hitting the big red switch for the next batch.

In the more likely situation that things work well, then close to 10,000 systems will go up for sale.

A week or two later, a significant number of customers will have the systems in their hands.

Some percentage of customers will have issues and need some level of customer support. Some customers may need replacement Pi's due to shipping issues. Some customers will want their money back. The financial types will want to know those percentages.

If things look good in the first week or two, the financial types will probably let the Foundation hit the big red switch a few more times on more 10k unit orders.

Assuming the Foundation's clerical staff isn't overwhelmed after several weeks of products in the field, and the post office only chews up a tiny percentage in shipping, and hardly anyone wants their money back, then we will see the Foundation ramp up production.

If things go incredibly well, the Foundation can get financing for massive production. If things go moderately well, the Foundation can have the Pis produced in moderate volume, or they can tweak things until things go incredibly well.

Hopefully, sometime around April or May, the Foundation will need to know the demand level, so they will know if they should order 500,000 or 2,000,000 units per month. Up through at least March, we know there will be sufficient demand to soak up as many model B's as they can sanely make and sell at $35 each. We won't need to be counted.

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