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Jongoleur
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:52 pm

kme said:





Careful what you wish for… If, say, France suddenly decide that one class year of pupils suddenly should have a R-Pi as naturally as a text book, that would mean a 700k order. And this is just one country and just one class level. Feel free to scale up and I see some pale faces in the R-Pi HQ (read: Liz"s kitchen).



Oh come on....    I can imagine several EU countries being interested in the Pi, but France?  An English "ordinateur Pi"?

Does not compute.....
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:07 pm

Jongoleur said:

Oh come on....    I can imagine several EU countries being interested in the Pi, but France?  An English"ordinateur Pi"?

Does not compute.....


Oh, well. The French quite happily use Apple just be course Apple was fast to translate its OS to French. It isn't exactly becourse they love Les Américain, is it? It may be easier to buy from an inferior country like the UK (you asked for it!)

nichobb
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:17 pm

I don"t think France will be buying anything in 2012, especially from the UK when their credit rating drops and the UK one doesn"t (although with Europe decline won"t be great for us.)

Fance must be upset with having such weak banks (although not worst in Europe) … hate to be in any country where the banks are looking so threatened.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:48 pm

Hopefully the initial batch will not contain ridiculously large commercial orders from resellers (funnily called "distributors" yet they can create monopolies) or companies interested in using Raspi in commercial products. I can already imagine Wyse being interested in using Raspi to create stupidly cheap Thin Clients and sell them for €250 each excluding software. I can also imagine Chinese companies creating TV-boxes out of raspis and sell them for $100 on ebay.. Both of these applications shouldn't raise any questions, though the initial reason for developing Raspberry Pi was to stimulate IT etc etc. I doubt the affiliated companies would still provide Raspi's components at a discount price if it turns out companies start to take enormous commercial orders. After all, the reason those companies (including Broadcom itself) provide discounts not accessible to regular companies is because of the reason of the Raspberry Pi's existence (education).

The expectation of "dumbing down the forum" is also quite legitimate, though not necessarily bad. I mean, the XDA-developers forum has a huge gap between newbies and well-known "hackers". Somehow, the patience of the knowledged prevails and all members' questions, whether reposted for the hundredth time or stupid from the beginning, get answered calmly so google can index every single question. Though I do hope the forum's software will be fixed soon, apostrophes are still being displayed as quotation marks.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:08 am


@DeliciousRaspberryCake

I completely agree with every signal point and concern. As someone who deals with the cartels, ooops I mean distributors, of IT every day, I hope raspberrypi can do it all themselves rather than fall into that (hell)hole.

But please do fix the forum software, half of my screen width is taken up by two white vertical bars and two grey vertical bars.

I think it's the moderation of XDA-developers that has kept it alive, the have the balance just about right.

PS. found a bug it says it got the answer to maths question wrong, last time I checked 10+8 = 18.

had to copy, paste and close thread and re-reply


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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:22 am

DeliciousRaspberryCake said:


I can also imagine Chinese companies creating TV-boxes out of raspis and sell them for $100 on ebay..


After the PCB files are released and are on the internet Chinese companies will be able to make the product cheaper than $25 and make a bigger profit.  This may be a possibility in the beginning, but if it is viable they will find a way to make it cheaper and cut out the foundation.  But if they want to buy bulk of them from the foundation I say let them that is more support for the R-Pi foundation financially and money will make better things happen down the road.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:47 am

Jessie said:


After the PCB files are released and are on the internet Chinese companies will be able to make the product cheaper than $25 and make a bigger profit.  This may be a possibility in the beginning, but if it is viable they will find a way to make it cheaper and cut out the foundation.  But if they want to buy bulk of them from the foundation I say let them that is more support for the R-Pi foundation financially and money will make better things happen down the road.


Considering the amount of haggling the Raspberry Pi foundation had to do with their component suppliers, PCB servicing and with Broadcom itself, I honestly doubt there'll be anyone on this planet that can produce a raspberry pi for less than $25 and still make a profit. The foundation keeps boasting that Broadcom usually deals in millions of chips rather than thousands; "How many million would you like?" could be a common question in the Broadcom sales department. Being able to have a first batch of a mere 10.000 is a huge privilege. I think I once read that the SOC together with the ram cost about $15, these are unavoidable costs which anyone would need to make. The board itself, the connectors, pick-and-place time, quality control and profit need to fit in the remaining $10. One of the reasons the developmental time was so long is because the hardware team managed to lower component costs by for example using one of the SoC's timers for HDMI (if I understood it correctly), so no additional components are necessary for tasks. To me this illustrates the ridiculously small margin for profit; which is not a bad thing considering Raspberry Pi is a non-profit organisation.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:09 am

DeliciousRaspberryCake said:


Considering the amount of haggling the Raspberry Pi foundation had to do with their component suppliers, PCB servicing and with Broadcom itself, I honestly doubt there'll be anyone on this planet that can produce a raspberry pi for less than $25 and still make a profit. The foundation keeps boasting that Broadcom usually deals in millions of chips rather than thousands; "How many million would you like?" could be a common question in the Broadcom sales department. Being able to have a first batch of a mere 10.000 is a huge privilege. I think I once read that the SOC together with the ram cost about $15, these are unavoidable costs which anyone would need to make. The board itself, the connectors, pick-and-place time, quality control and profit need to fit in the remaining $10. One of the reasons the developmental time was so long is because the hardware team managed to lower component costs by for example using one of the SoC's timers for HDMI (if I understood it correctly), so no additional components are necessary for tasks. To me this illustrates the ridiculously small margin for profit; which is not a bad thing considering Raspberry Pi is a non-profit organisation.


ever thought of chinese fake components?

I mean, they could produce ARM processors for china phones, why not for the R-Pi?

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:57 am

nichobb said:

hate to be in any country where the banks are looking so threatened.
Yes, I'd hate to live in the UK as well.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:18 am

I have a funny feeling you will see a huge demand for these once they are released. It only takes 1 engadget or slashdot story to reach millions of techy people and then you will really see them fly off the shelves. Be prepared

As for me I'm already looking to buy 10-15 for our school programming club. Hope they will be available to buy in batch loads.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 10:45 am

pishboy said:


DeliciousRaspberryCake said:


Considering the amount of haggling the Raspberry Pi foundation had to do with their component suppliers, PCB servicing and with Broadcom itself, I honestly doubt there'll be anyone on this planet that can produce a raspberry pi for less than $25 and still make a profit. The foundation keeps boasting that Broadcom usually deals in millions of chips rather than thousands; "How many million would you like?" could be a common question in the Broadcom sales department. Being able to have a first batch of a mere 10.000 is a huge privilege. I think I once read that the SOC together with the ram cost about $15, these are unavoidable costs which anyone would need to make. The board itself, the connectors, pick-and-place time, quality control and profit need to fit in the remaining $10. One of the reasons the developmental time was so long is because the hardware team managed to lower component costs by for example using one of the SoC's timers for HDMI (if I understood it correctly), so no additional components are necessary for tasks. To me this illustrates the ridiculously small margin for profit; which is not a bad thing considering Raspberry Pi is a non-profit organisation.


ever thought of chinese fake components?

I mean, they could produce ARM processors for china phones, why not for the R-Pi?


They won't have the GPU. They could use the A10 processor, but I doubt they can get eh price down to Raspberry Pi levels and make money.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 11:08 am

JamesH said:


They won't have the GPU. They could use the A10 processor, but I doubt they can get eh price down to Raspberry Pi levels and make money.


The foundation said they are happy with giving the designs out for clones to be made, does that mean that Broadcom would sell the SoC to them, or would it be selected companies they deal with (typically speaking of course)?
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:35 pm

meltwater said:


JamesH said:


They won't have the GPU. They could use the A10 processor, but I doubt they can get eh price down to Raspberry Pi levels and make money.


The foundation said they are happy with giving the designs out for clones to be made, does that mean that Broadcom would sell the SoC to them, or would it be selected companies they deal with (typically speaking of course)?


Depends on how many they want to buy. I'm thinking anything less than 100k and Broadcom won't be interested, because the income won't cover the costs.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:04 pm

Guess we will see then.  I suppose it may also provide a way for companies to use broadcom chips in their smaller lines, while having somewhere else to use them to use up the surplus.  I guess also if R-Pis are taken on at a national levels, those numbers will be small fry.

I think, even if it isn't a direct clone, some similar products will appear if the R-Pi shows the way - we've already see a few at various price/power levels (although probably more media computer packaged, than hardware I/O focused).

Fortunately as market share and profits etc isn't a factor for the R-Pi to continue, this will only be a good thing for all in general.  It's bound to be a good while before they are making more R-Pi than the demand though.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sat Jan 14, 2012 7:13 pm

A better question might be...

What happens when Broadcom discontinue manufacture of that chip?

Raspberry PI's start getting fitted with better processors, and your original one will be worthless.

They start fitting them with slower processors.

Or... They stop manufacturing them altogether.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sat Jan 14, 2012 7:22 pm

Why would the original be worthless? I have a number of PC's around, some going back a number of years - they still work and can still do tasks. Same applies to Raspi's

Say BRCM stop making the 2835 (not likely in the next two years), the Raspi gets redesigned to use the next chip at the same price. It will be a faster Arm, because that's the way things go, maybe a faster GPU.

But it's still an Arm, and still runs Linux. So all the stuff you did on the original STILL WORKS.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sat Jan 14, 2012 7:44 pm

Hardware doesn't magically cease working once newer iterations succeed it. You can put it to other uses if it no longer suits your original requirements, or give it to someone who can put it to use. I mean, isn't that at least part of the reason we have lean OSes that vastly extend the life of such abandoned hardware?

Come on, guys, why the "It's worthless as soon as there's something new" attitude? Really? I swear, I didn't switch from using a Commodore 64 until 1996, and even then I found it better for getting things done than the beige-boxes of the time... And get off my lawn, the lot of you!

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:44 pm

JamesH said:

...
Say BRCM stop making the 2835 (not likely in the next two years),...


So in two+ years Broadcom discontinue it. I would surmise they would do that iff they are then producing an eqivalent / better one. Which hopefully would be backwards compatable with the 2835 (maybe even pin-compatable?) Same would be true of the 128/256MB PoP memory.

So in two+ years we'll have an R-Pi which is better but still runs the old stuff - we all gain, no-one loses.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:49 pm

I guess you continue to use the old one or buy the new one for the price if a few dvds...by then a new version would be worth the difference I expect.

Apple do it quite often and the cost is *slightly* higher to update.
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:58 pm

Google 'Raspberry Pi' today and you get 7,520,000 hits - and the forum has nearly 7750 members (see post #3 on p.1 of this thread - dated 2nd January).  That's a lot of interest in 2 weeks.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:12 pm

an answer to the original question "How much sales do you think will raspi make?"

Answer : LOTS!

p.s.

as long as the price stays this low. just goes to show how much money is being made from 'other' hardware..

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:59 pm

Regarding the original question, I'm sure that the Raspberry Pi will be a success in terms of units sold.

As for all this "There's X many hits on Google", some of you need to work on your Google Fu. The only sensible way to search for the total number of Raspberry Pi-related pages is to make use of quotation marks, (don't search for Raspberry Pi, instead search for "Raspberry Pi"). This is because you want to remove pages that just have "Raspberry" or just have "Pi" in the search results. At the time of writing this, the number of pages that Google has indexed for "Raspberry Pi" is 1,910,000.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:12 pm

"How Many?"

Depends on how quick they can make 'em.

The Foundation seem to be erring on the pesimistic side.

I haven't bet my house on it, so I can afford to be an optimist.

FunCube have a video (linked to some in this forum - search for it) in which the guy said PayPal have an in-built limit of three sales per second. So at that rate our first lot will be sold out in an hour. Another couple of weeks to restock, then another hour. Hopefully by that time they're ordering them by the million, cos I think they'll need to. But then, as I said, 'taint my house ...

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:18 pm

connectivity wise annoyingly enough the .org is in the uk but the .com store is in the us.

perhaps they should filter selling the first batch to uk ip space only  :-) im 0.4ms away from the .org and over 120ms from the .com, can't help us brits in the race.

Oh well patience will be required!

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