pishboy
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:30 pm

I'm expecting +15000 in the first month and also the shop server not being able to cope with the traffic

I'm expecting i wont be able to buy the first batch of boards BUT i do hope i can be able to buy ASAP. I know someone in the UK who could bring it for me here, would save on customs and shipping

How about you? what do you guys think?

(9+7? why is x not working? it's supposed to be a substitute of any number right?)

kme
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 4:47 pm

I think the first 10 k units will be gone instantaneously ( a few days, maybe two weeks). But I also expect to see a significant number appear on ebay a few weeks later. A lot of people seem not to have a clue what the hardware can/does (rather cannot/doesn't) and even more are clueless on Linux and will not put in the effort to understand it.

So the spring could be slow, but then the word will spread and sales pick up again as docs and success stories appear.

PS: Argh! Come on. "1+1"? I'm insulted!

SwampPuppet
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:20 pm

Google "Raspberry Pi". 2,200,000 results.

The forum has almost 7,000 members. I'll bet the mailing list is way longer.

Imagine the launch of the first iPhone, the first ZX Spectrum, the first Skybox.

Then consider if Apple had only sold a first batch of 10,000, or Amstrad did. What would be the value of an un-opened first batch, boxed Spectrum from that batch of 10,000 today? Especially for a machine that has no protective case and numbers may be diminished by jammy fingers, dust, a spilled cup of tea and home-soldering bodges. I'd say it would be worth £15/£22 to have a punt and find out, wouldn't you?

I have also seen no assurances that single number orders will be given priority. What is to stop someone getting in first, buying 8,000 and then putting them on e-bay for $60+. They'd sell, the wait has been long, anticipation is high and with no more for another month ... And so the ticket tout is born.

I'll bet all 10,000 go in under and hour and it will be pure luck if you can access the shop during that time to get your order through.

Its going to be a tricky one for Raspberry Pi. A business wouldn't care. Once they are sold they are sold. Who cares to whom? But a charity with a mission statement about promoting education and building a community isn't going to want 80% of its first batch to never leave the box, unless they are already resigned to take that hit.

For the record I'd love one of the little bleeders. Mine would come out of the box on day 1 and be fiddled with. But I think I may have to wait some time before I can actually buy a £15 computer, hover my hand over it and remark "Mmmm, warm raspberry pi!"

Tomo2k
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:36 pm

I don't think it matters all that much for the first batch.

As I understand it, essentially the Foundation has enough cash to make one batch, and once the first batch are sold (hopefully at a small profit), they'll have the cash to immediately "hit the button" on a second batch, and put aside the excess for support materials, office expenses, web hosting etc.

Thus the first batch will provide the (rest of the) cash needed to manufacture the second batch, then lather, rinse, repeat until a better SoC comes along.

So it doesn't really matter if a notable number of the first batch are never used, because by selling them the Foundation has the cash to make the next batch, which I doubt collectors are likely to care about!

pishboy
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:46 pm

SwampPuppet said:


Google "Raspberry Pi". 2,200,000 results.

The forum has almost 7,000 members. I'll bet the mailing list is way longer.

Imagine the launch of the first iPhone, the first ZX Spectrum, the first Skybox.

Then consider if Apple had only sold a first batch of 10,000, or Amstrad did. What would be the value of an un-opened first batch, boxed Spectrum from that batch of 10,000 today? Especially for a machine that has no protective case and numbers may be diminished by jammy fingers, dust, a spilled cup of tea and home-soldering bodges. I'd say it would be worth £15/£22 to have a punt and find out, wouldn't you?

I have also seen no assurances that single number orders will be given priority. What is to stop someone getting in first, buying 8,000 and then putting them on e-bay for $60+. They'd sell, the wait has been long, anticipation is high and with no more for another month ... And so the ticket tout is born.

I'll bet all 10,000 go in under and hour and it will be pure luck if you can access the shop during that time to get your order through.

Its going to be a tricky one for Raspberry Pi. A business wouldn't care. Once they are sold they are sold. Who cares to whom? But a charity with a mission statement about promoting education and building a community isn't going to want 80% of its first batch to never leave the box, unless they are already resigned to take that hit.

For the record I'd love one of the little bleeders. Mine would come out of the box on day 1 and be fiddled with. But I think I may have to wait some time before I can actually buy a £15 computer, hover my hand over it and remark "Mmmm, warm raspberry pi!"


Google turned out 19.8m results on mine and the forum has 6.2k members

What the shop should do is limit purchases to around 10 per individual and for organizations who want more wait for the "schools release" (mentioned in a blog comment, http://www.raspberrypi.org/arc.....9#comments to be exact). so a min of 1k peeps can buy the raspi. I mean seriously, it's just mean to buy 8k of 10k and have the rest of the world starving for some pi >:(

What could be worse is have some imitations of the board with substandard quality and rendering it as a different device. *ehem*
Once raspi has several manufacturers licensed to make raspis i think they should do factory visits (surprise and scheduled) in order to check if the rendered products are fit for sale.

SwampPuppet
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:58 pm

You might want to re-google but with "'s around the Raspberry Pi in order to reduce returns for Delia's raspberry cake and sites with pi calcs in them.;)

Yes, taking 8k would be mean … but possibly very profitable. Imagine if you are in the united states and got 2000 of them. You are now the dealer. You have a monopoly. I very much hope you can only order in ones to begin with. Then if you want to go through the process 50 times, good luck to you. I don't think many teachers will want 10 from the first batch. They will want one and some time with it to build a lesson plan for after hours classes or similar.

Correct. Subsequent batches will be worthless to collectors unless there are very few before the product is licensed and cloned. Then you are back to 'original raspberry pi's" made by raspberry pi. Its the fragility of an uncased computer for 'hacking' that makes me think not many will survive too long. At £15 they are disposable computers to our economy anyway. Fire and forget. Set it a task and let it get on with it. New task, new toy.

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psergiu
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:16 pm

I'm betting on a one day fire sale for the first 10k batch - The RPis will be gone in about 6-8 hours of server uptime (most of the time the server will be down due to "too many database connections")

I'm betting on a limit of one rev.A and one rev.B for each account registered on raspberrypi.com

At least two separate threads on the forum will open complaining about not being able to order because of the slow server. 1/4 of the posts will ask if the shopping platform is hosted on a RPi.

At least one thread of people complaining that the price is not actually 25$ and 35$ (because of the VAT & Shipping) and it's all a lie and they are being robbed. 1/5 of those will say that they live in Elbonia and they sold their sole goat for those 25$ and don't have any more money to pay for shipping.

After all 10k are sold, more threads will open acusing the RPi foundation of the following:

- The RPis are not actually real - it's a scam. That either nobody actually bought one as the on-line shop was never up, or that this website will be gone tomorrow together with everyone's money;

- The RPi foundation discriminates against their country/nationality (mostly because the start time of the sale);

- There were only "n" RPis for sale, where "n" it's a number way smaller than 10000. Various "proofs" based on URL strings and browser cookie data will be presented.

About 100 will show up on eBay. The 1st 10 auctions will go way over 100$. There will be at least 10 auctions with a starting price so outrageous, that they won't sell at all.

After the RPis are shipped, at least 100 bozos will "discover" that it has no VGA and will complain on the forums.

100 more bozos will complain that the power adapter was not included and they have only mini-usb cables and not a single micro-usb one.

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Jessie
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:31 pm

Ahh yes the general public.  I don't know how the initial lot will go.  I really didn't think that we would see the auctions going so high so I guess I really don't know the real demand here.  All I know is the the forums here will probibly be miserable for a couple months.  There will be many legit questions, but there will also be far more inane questions.  You will see the common stuff like "I can't get mine to boot" and "Mine never came (incidentally the day after order.)"  I'm sure we will get people wanting to ask questions about illegal activities like "Where can I get MAME ROMs."  It will be great.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:34 pm

Tomo2k said:

As I understand it, essentially the Foundation has enough cash to make one batch, and once the first batch are sold (hopefully at a small profit), they'll have the cash to immediately "hit the button" on a second batch, and put aside the excess for support materials, office expenses, web hosting etc.


Please!  RasPi is a charity, not a for-profit company, so they don't make a "profit".  I believe the correct term is "surplus".  Or as a buddy of mine once said:


So I guess "surplus" is the politically-correct term for "profit", huh?


nelson
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:02 pm

If you ever come to Portugal and return a item in a store and someone marks BU on the box when accepting the return you have just been called stupid, tech illiteracy is so great here that it became an unofficial national standard to put that mark on itens that are fine, but the user couldn't operate/understand or had unreasonable high expectations for the item (no... netbooks and the pi can't play crysis), these items are usually cleaned up, repackaged and put for sale again.

PS. BU stands for 'Besta de Utilizador' and means (VERY) stupid user.

Will be fun to compare the questions that will arise here with the ones i got when working after sales tech support, wonder how many 'I can't find word/excel threads' will be created.

hippy
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:15 pm

Jessie said:


You will see the common stuff like "I can't get mine to boot"


Swiftly followed by; How do I install Windows ?

arm2
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:12 pm

SwampPuppet said:


I have also seen no assurances that single number orders will be given priority. What is to stop someone getting in first, buying 8,000 and then putting them on e-bay for $60+.

Liz has posted a number of times that the first 10,000 will limited to one per person (I think her last post on the matter said one per address) Though she did suggest people could ask friends to buy another one on their behalf!

I'm not sure this quoting is going to work correctly!

Chris Evans (CJE/4D)




jamesh
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:19 pm

arm2 said:


SwampPuppet said:


I have also seen no assurances that single number orders will be given priority. What is to stop someone getting in first, buying 8,000 and then putting them on e-bay for $60+.


Liz has posted a number of times that the first 10,000 will limited to one per person (I think her last post on the matter said one per address) Though she did suggest people could ask friends to buy another one on their behalf!



I'm not sure this quoting is going to work correctly!

Chris Evans (CJE/4D)




Correct, both in the statement of one per person, and the problem with quoting!

One per person is specifically to prevent the Ebay effect. Once past the first batch things will be loosened up.

Some of the predictions above are quite amusing, well done chaps!

I'm particularly looking forward to the barrage of inane questions.
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SwampPuppet
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:24 pm

There are lots of threads here now. I haven't read them all. lol.

That is useful to know, thanks. I know its sacrilege but I really think my first Raspi might be a Super Nintendo (emulator). Its meant to be fun right?

judderman
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Mon Jan 02, 2012 9:25 pm

I'm not sure on this one.  I'm know the people who are avidly following this site, checking 2 or 3 times a day - I may only just have registered, but I've been doing just that for about 2 months now - are absolutely desperate to get their hands on one. Outside that, most people have either not heard of it, or just caught an article in the media and haven't been too enthused.

If there aren't too many like me, reading but unregistered, and we only order one each, then 10k should do us nicely - of course, many will want one to play with, and one to keep as an investment item, but unless you have a big house, and a tolerant partner, who wont gradually wear you down with demands to chuck away 'all that junk', it's unlikely that it will actually be kept long enough to make any substantial money.

Regards, Stewart

mr rive
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:45 pm


kme said:

I think the first 10 k units will be gone instantaneously ( a few days, maybe two weeks). But I also expect to see a significant number appear on ebay a few weeks later. A lot of people seem not to have a clue what the hardware can/does (rather cannot/doesn't) and even more are clueless on Linux and will not put in the effort to understand it.

I hope not. But then, thats what happens. People buy them and list them at twice the price. And people pay it.

Does anyone else think 10k for a first run is far far too few? Is there a fiscal limitation at the Pi bank? Because if the idea is for them to be cheap and 'available', the inevitible constipated supply will probably just result in them going for hundreds on resale and the whole concept being undermined by greedy prospectors.


s1oan
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 2:21 pm

I know it's not the same product but I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this.

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Jongoleur
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:11 pm

The first batch will be gone in a day.

I expect the next few batches to sell very quickly too, more on the scale of a batch a week, especially as the ordering limit comes off.

Things might then tail off a bit until the next phase, the cased kits with documentation come along (mid-year?).  By then, with the Pi a reality, its possible that schools will be ordering sample quantities. The Pi is so cheap that a small set could be bought for evaluation or to set up a programming club without caning the budget too severely.

Depending on how the Pi is advertised to the target market(s), there could be a boost as Christmas approaches; if its seen as the new thing to have, the size of the sales could be embarassingly large.

If the Foundation can get the Government and the BBC behind it, the Pi could rival the sales figures for the Micros of old….

Figures?  God knows.  It"ll just be a stonking success!

Edited for sense….  *g*
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:27 pm

Embarrassingly large? I doubt the foundation CAN be that embarassed!
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kme
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:38 pm

JamesH said:


Embarrassingly large? I doubt the foundation CAN be that embarassed!


Careful what you wish for… If, say, France suddenly decide that one class year of pupils suddenly should have a R-Pi as naturally as a text book, that would mean a 700k order. And this is just one country and just one class level. Feel free to scale up and I see some pale faces in the R-Pi HQ (read: Liz"s kitchen).

lworbey
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:38 pm

I just hope that even if only for the initial batch people are limited to how many they can order so people can't buy loads and stick them all on eBay!

It is going to be hard enough getting 1 of 10,000 without people buying in bulk! Any official word on this???

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Jongoleur
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:40 pm

JamesH said:


Embarrassingly large? I doubt the foundation CAN be that embarassed!



Well no, not after the eBay surprises!
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andgreen
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:40 pm

I'm hoping they will all be gone on the first day, but with the interest shown on the internet I can't see how the Raspberry Pi shop will handle the load.

Why not just put the lot on Ebay with a buy it now price ?

tbar
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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:46 pm

I predict that the initial batch will sell within a few hours.

When the buyers of the first batch has had time to play with the RPi orders will start to pour in. Personally I'll buy three RPis depending on how the first one performs and I highly doubt I'm alone in this regard. If they can keep up volume I think they'll reach 100K within the first month.

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Re: How much sales do you think will raspi make?

Wed Jan 04, 2012 3:47 pm

lworbey said:


I just hope that even if only for the initial batch people are limited to how many they can order so people can't buy loads and stick them all on eBay!

It is going to be hard enough getting 1 of 10,000 without people buying in bulk! Any official word on this???



It has been mentioned elsewhere that the first batch will have a limit of "1 per address", so this might discourage bulk buying eBay scum  ummm.. I mean small scale entrepreneurs from trying to corner the market for their own profit.  AFAIK its not quite 10000 either.  The parts from the first 100 came from the batch total, as do the 400 being reserved for a development push, so the first batch will be about 9500.  We definitely don't want leeches digging into that!
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