W. H. Heydt
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Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:05 am

Per this article: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/01 ... _licenses/ Qualcom sold 804 million Snapdragon SoCs in the year ending 24 September 2017. By comparison, annual sales of Pis are on the order of 5 million.

We all love the Pi, and it is (so far as I can tell) THE dominant product in the SBC market, but that really means that its a very big frog in a very small pond.

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Imperf3kt
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am

0.006% of market share is a big frog?

Honestly, the Pi is rather under powered for its price in my opinion. Just look at smartphones in comparison. For about the same price you get a 'computer' (with specialised Phone software and restrictions) with 3G or 4G access, a GPS built in, a screen, a battery, a charger and usually headphones or some other HID and a manual plus sometimes a SIM card, SD card and phone credit included.
What does a Pi come with? The Pi, an OS and access to this forum. Thats it. And performance-wise they're all fairly close.

The advantage a Pi has, far as I can tell, is its partly open source whereas smartphones are not able to be modified or used for anything outside their intended purpose.
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W. H. Heydt
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:57 am

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am
0.006% of market share is a big frog?
...in a very small pond. Compared to other SBCs (note: not compared to cell phones and tablets) the Pi is far and away the biggest product in it's market.
Honestly, the Pi is rather under powered for its price in my opinion.
Taking the gross income and dividing by the number sold, one discovers that those Snapdragon chips sell for about $20 each. That's just the SoC. Now tell me how you would put a $20 (wholesale) SoC into a $35 (retail) computer. Once you figure that out, tell me how you'd do it with a $25 computer (B+), $20 computer (A+), $10 computer (Pi0W) and $5 computer (Pi0).

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Imperf3kt
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:28 am

See, now, my experience with them is as a whole package. And those packages cost roughly $60-$100 for the ~Raspberry Pi equivalent

Here, a Pi (just the Pi, no shipping, no accessories) costs $55 and thats if you get it on sale.

So it doesn't quite matter how you sell a "whole computer" for the price of a Raspberry Pi. For just an extra $20-$50 you get all required accessories in a neat package.
What do you get for a Pi for that extra $20-$50? Maybe, MAYBE, an SD card and a budget kb+mouse. You're still shy a monitor, power supply, USB cable, GPS unit, camera, charging circuit etc etc etc.

My point was that the Pi is still advantageous, despite missing these things - because you have access to the GPIO unlike on these other devices which make up most of that 805 million sold chips.
So I am not comparing the wrong thing, you forgot that those chips are used in more than just SBCs. They're used in phones, tablets, media players, PVRs, even your fridge!
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rpdom
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:31 am

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:28 am
those chips are used in more than just SBCs. They're used in phones, tablets, media players, PVRs, even your fridge!
There are no chips in my fridge. Maybe some in the freezer perhaps :lol:

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:55 am

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am

Honestly, the Pi is rather under powered for its price in my opinion.
What aromatic material are you smoking?

The RPi is priced just right for a ten year old obsolete cell-phone chip with the peripherals needed to interface it to the outside world.

Where else can you get the same MIPS per sq cm?

It's more powerful than the S/370 $1000000 mainframe that I worked on in 1982.

The next step will need a faster SoC by cannibalising a newer cell-phone chip that has just been obsoleted by Samsung/Apple/Motorola etc.
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Heater
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:21 am

Imperf3kt,
0.006% of market share is a big frog?
You might want to check your arithmetic there.

W. H. Heydt,
..and it is (so far as I can tell) THE dominant product in the SBC market,
Is this actually true? How would we know?

There are thousands of SBC's out there. The PC104 form factor has been huge for ages and still a big thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PC/104

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:26 am

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:28 am
See, now, my experience with them is as a whole package. And those packages cost roughly $60-$100 for the ~Raspberry Pi equivalent

Here, a Pi (just the Pi, no shipping, no accessories) costs $55 and thats if you get it on sale.

So it doesn't quite matter how you sell a "whole computer" for the price of a Raspberry Pi. For just an extra $20-$50 you get all required accessories in a neat package.
What do you get for a Pi for that extra $20-$50? Maybe, MAYBE, an SD card and a budget kb+mouse. You're still shy a monitor, power supply, USB cable, GPS unit, camera, charging circuit etc etc etc.

My point was that the Pi is still advantageous, despite missing these things - because you have access to the GPIO unlike on these other devices which make up most of that 805 million sold chips.
So I am not comparing the wrong thing, you forgot that those chips are used in more than just SBCs. They're used in phones, tablets, media players, PVRs, even your fridge!
The Pi3 is $35 ex tax/postage. End of. If you are buying at more that that you need to shop around more.

If the Pi were overpriced, there would be any number of competitors making cheaper ones. There are not. That should give you some idea of whether it is overpriced. We sell 5M of them a year...and tbh, if you think that a quad core ARM A53 running at 1.2GHz is a bit of an underperformer, you need to write better code.


As for the OP, you cannot compare the Qualcom sales of high end SoC's with the Pi sales. Very different markets.
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:31 am

Heater wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:21 am
Imperf3kt,
0.006% of market share is a big frog?
You might want to check your arithmetic there.

W. H. Heydt,
..and it is (so far as I can tell) THE dominant product in the SBC market,
Is this actually true? How would we know?

There are thousands of SBC's out there. The PC104 form factor has been huge for ages and still a big thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PC/104
Of course it's the dominant product in the SBC market. The Raspberry Pi is now the third biggest selling home computer device line of all time, second only to the Mac and the PC. No other SBC even comes close.

Over 17M sold now IIRC. If any other SBC hits the multi million level, let me know.
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W. H. Heydt
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:38 pm

jamesh wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:26 am
As for the OP, you cannot compare the Qualcom sales of high end SoC's with the Pi sales. Very different markets.
Yes, I know. That's why I noted that the "pond" (market) is such that the Pi is the big player. I think it is fantastic that 17M Pis have been sold, but we still need to be cognizant that the SBC (and, particularly, the amateur SBC) market is pretty small compared to the big ARM SoC markets.

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:45 pm

jamesh wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:31 am
Over 17M sold now IIRC. If any other SBC hits the multi million level, let me know.
I don't know if it's still true, but a couple of years ago or so, I watched the reported sales figures for a line that I believe the be the #2 line (they were #1...until the Pi came along and blew them out of the water). Their sales were consistently running very close to 5% of Pi sales. If that is still true, their overall sales would now be around 850K. That level of sales would be considered a big deal in this market...were it not for the Pi.

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:56 pm

W. H. Heydt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:45 pm
jamesh wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:31 am
Over 17M sold now IIRC. If any other SBC hits the multi million level, let me know.
I don't know if it's still true, but a couple of years ago or so, I watched the reported sales figures for a line that I believe the be the #2 line (they were #1...until the Pi came along and blew them out of the water). Their sales were consistently running very close to 5% of Pi sales. If that is still true, their overall sales would now be around 850K. That level of sales would be considered a big deal in this market...were it not for the Pi.
TBH, we though 30k would be a good market, 5 years ago.....how time flies.
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:50 pm

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am
Just look at smartphones in comparison. For about the same price you get a 'computer' (with specialised Phone software and restrictions) with 3G or 4G access, a GPS built in, a screen, a battery, a charger and …
… and a magical ability to turn into a paperweight unless you fork out $50/month for life for cell service. A better cost comparison would be to an outright purchase of an unlocked cellphone. Most of them are several hundred dollars.
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:13 pm

A more appropriate comparison in terms of performance and what hardware you get for the money might be those US$40-ish media player boxes/sticks running Android. But they don't have the flexibility of RPis.

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:46 pm

jamesh wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:56 pm
W. H. Heydt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:45 pm
jamesh wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:31 am
Over 17M sold now IIRC. If any other SBC hits the multi million level, let me know.
I don't know if it's still true, but a couple of years ago or so, I watched the reported sales figures for a line that I believe the be the #2 line (they were #1...until the Pi came along and blew them out of the water). Their sales were consistently running very close to 5% of Pi sales. If that is still true, their overall sales would now be around 850K. That level of sales would be considered a big deal in this market...were it not for the Pi.
TBH, we though 30k would be a good market, 5 years ago.....how time flies.
Yes... I remember the comments about hoping to sell 10K the first year with a stretch goal of 20K. At that time, to have suggested that there would come a time when the production would need to hit 20k per day would have be inconceivable. (And, yes, I am given to understand that the factory in Wales can do that, but the rate can't be sustained for very long and normal "full production" is actually about 15K per day.)

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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:57 pm

W. H. Heydt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:46 pm
I remember the comments about hoping to sell 10K the first year with a stretch goal of 20K. At that time, to have suggested that there would come a time when the production would need to hit 20k per day would have be inconceivable.
You are right on that. Even predicting a demand of a million plus a year got ridiculed and disbelieved, and that was repeated when similar predictions for Zeroes were made.

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Imperf3kt
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Re: Reality Check

Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:57 pm

scruss wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:50 pm
Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am
Just look at smartphones in comparison. For about the same price you get a 'computer' (with specialised Phone software and restrictions) with 3G or 4G access, a GPS built in, a screen, a battery, a charger and …
… and a magical ability to turn into a paperweight unless you fork out $50/month for life for cell service. A better cost comparison would be to an outright purchase of an unlocked cellphone. Most of them are several hundred dollars.
I'll concede defeat, I had overlooked this fact.

@Jamesh
The same code running on my Pi (albeit ported to Android) runs on my several year old, obsolete Android 4.4 smartphone with an (as far as I know) identical spec SOC, yet somehow on the Android it works far superior. Perhaps because it has 2GB of RAM
https://www.qualcomm.com/products/snapd ... essors/410

Could you shed some light on any mistakes I have made (I probably have)
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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:27 pm

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:57 pm
I'll concede defeat, I had overlooked this fact.
A phone is usable as a computer if one can accept its limitations. One does not need any 2G, 3G or 4G access or contract if it is used via WiFi, Bluetooth or USB tethered. That shouldn't be a problem at home and there are free public WiFi hotspots; even our local buses provide those.

A phone or tablet isn't as capable, flexible or usable as a Pi in terms of being a computer but can make a perfect application platform and often cheaper than a Pi equivalent when touch display and battery management is taken into account.

I use a £20 Android phone with an expired SIM to keep my DVD and CD lists on so I can avoid buying duplicates when out shopping. That also doubles as a Bluetooth remote to control microcontrollers systems I have. I have an identical phone I am using as a 'networked speech engine' and status display for my Pi's and PC's.

It's all a matter of use case. The Pi wins hands-down as a general purpose computer.

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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:59 pm

Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:57 pm
scruss wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:50 pm
Imperf3kt wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:35 am
Just look at smartphones in comparison. For about the same price you get a 'computer' (with specialised Phone software and restrictions) with 3G or 4G access, a GPS built in, a screen, a battery, a charger and …
… and a magical ability to turn into a paperweight unless you fork out $50/month for life for cell service. A better cost comparison would be to an outright purchase of an unlocked cellphone. Most of them are several hundred dollars.
I'll concede defeat, I had overlooked this fact.

@Jamesh
The same code running on my Pi (albeit ported to Android) runs on my several year old, obsolete Android 4.4 smartphone with an (as far as I know) identical spec SOC, yet somehow on the Android it works far superior. Perhaps because it has 2GB of RAM
https://www.qualcomm.com/products/snapd ... essors/410

Could you shed some light on any mistakes I have made (I probably have)
If it's been ported to Android, it's not really the same code, and without knowing what the code actually does, it's difficult to see why its may be faster under Android. It should, actually, be much slower, since Android is just a Linux kernel with extra stuff bolted on top. So effectively, running on a Pi just removes all the Android fluff, so should be faster since it has less to do. Could be memory, could be faster SoC, could be a better memory bus fabric, might not be doing the same work.
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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:36 pm

hippy wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:27 pm
I use a £20 Android phone with an expired SIM to keep my DVD and CD lists on so I can avoid buying duplicates when out shopping. That also doubles as a Bluetooth remote to control microcontrollers systems I have. I have an identical phone I am using as a 'networked speech engine' and status display for my Pi's and PC's.
The one thing that would tempt me to get a "smartphone" would be to use it as what used to be called a PDA. I'd use it to contain reference data (the way you do to have the DVD data), appointment calendar (really, prescription refill dates...I take so many pills that I rattle when I walk) and the like.

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fruitoftheloom
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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:06 pm

My only "PC" is an Asus ChromeBit running ChromeOS, cloudcentric at its best !
Rockchip Quad-Core RK3288C SoC as used in ASUS Chromebook C201 & Chromebook Flip C100PA as well as the Tinker SBC.
3 Mobile Huawei E5330 Mobile Mi-Fi

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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:26 pm

That would be....interesting.

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Re: Reality Check

Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:03 pm

W. H. Heydt wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:26 pm
That would be....interesting.
Hmm, very interesting.
I still recall watching the patent spat between the two - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qualcomm_ ... adcom_Corp. / https://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/2 ... ettlement/

Then again the new Broadcom is very different to the old one.
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fruitoftheloom
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Re: Reality Check

Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:18 am

6by9 wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:03 pm
Then again the new Broadcom is very different to the old one.
Yes it was Avago Technologies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadcom_Limited
My only "PC" is an Asus ChromeBit running ChromeOS, cloudcentric at its best !
Rockchip Quad-Core RK3288C SoC as used in ASUS Chromebook C201 & Chromebook Flip C100PA as well as the Tinker SBC.
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