W. H. Heydt
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Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:40 am

We get constant threads wondering what (current answer: CM3) and when (current answer: "later this year") the next Pi will be like.

Nuts to that. I have an 8-year-old grandson. What will a $35 Pi be like if I get him one for his 18th birthday in March 2026? What will the $5 Pi Zero be like by then? If that's not far enough off, my son and daughter-in-law are expecting a child next January. What will be the Pi be like when that child turns 18 in 2035?

So...keep it civil and try to think of what could *actually* be practical on a Pi-sized board in a decade or two. (If this forum is still around, my bet would be that, no matter how wild, the speculations will look quaint, out of date, and way too conservative.)

Just to start it off...in 10 years, the Pi will have 8K video at 120fps.

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kusti8
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:49 am

There's a big discussion on this, but now that it seems that Moore's Law is slowing down (look at Intel's new tick tick tock) what if everyone had a $35 dollar Pi or anything and everything was in the cloud. Beside all the security and all that , it makes sense to have it all in the cloud now with IoT and it would be a Netflix like subscription.

But I see the demand for making as high, so wherever it goes, it should fit the design in the future. So what would be the next big thing in 10 years and that would be where the Pi is.
There are 10 types of people: those who understand binary and those who don't.

W. H. Heydt
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:25 am

Well before ten years out I would expect to see USB 3.0 and then USB 3.1.

On the clock frequency front, one can have an interesting time. I'm about to take delivery on a new gaming PC. Not particularly expensive as such things go, but it will have a 4GHz CPU. It uses water cooling, which is something I hope never to see required for a Pi, but I think there are some things that will narrow the gap.

Some years ago, AMD made a demo system out of isotopically pure Silicon 28. The claim was that the chip (an Opteron) would run at 5GHz (IIRC) with no heatsink and stayed cool enough to put your finger on it without getting burned. They also at one point took a stock Opteron, cooled it with ligquid Nitrogen and ran it at 8GHz. So, with those too poorly remembered data points...

In 10 years, isotopically pure Si-28 chips, 10nm process node, running at 4-5GHz with no heatsink.

And just to really push my luck...in 2035, 1TB RAM (and people complaining that it's not enough) and petabyte SD cards, or whatever replaces them.

Also by 2035, optical connections in place of USB running at 1Tb/s and people complaining that they way 10Tb/s optical Ethernet.

On the software side, a full shift to 64-bit, especially for storing time so that there is no rollover in 2038.

drgeoff
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:13 am

2035 is far enough away that extrapolation becomes risky.

Numerous examples in history.

Wooden sailing ships gave way to powered iron ships.

Horse drawn carriages gave way to vehicles with internal combustion engines.

Valves (tubes) gave way to semiconductors.

Slide rules were killed off by electronic calculators.

etc

While I would not predict that in 20 years time, computers will be totally different animals from what they are today, I do think we will see things which are more than natural progression of current computer technology.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:29 am

W. H. Heydt wrote:On the clock frequency front, one can have an interesting time. I'm about to take delivery on a new gaming PC. Not particularly expensive as such things go, but it will have a 4GHz CPU. It uses water cooling, which is something I hope never to see required for a Pi, but I think there are some things that will narrow the gap.
I have an old Ivybridge PC running at 4GHz that's passively cooled.
https://www.quietpc.com
See the Nofan range. The CPU is both overclocked and undervolted (by me) and its been 100% reliable for years.
The odroid c2 is 28nm and runs much faster (2GHz) and cooler than the Pi3. So for the distant future a Pi on 14nm lithography perhaps?
W. H. Heydt wrote: On the software side, a full shift to 64-bit, especially for storing time so that there is no rollover in 2038.
I think 64-bits is the norm now. When did you last see a 32-bit Intel desktop PC for sale? As for ARM SBC's, similar boards to the Pi3 (odroid-c2, pine64 say) all run "official" 64-bit OS's.
Last edited by jahboater on Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:37 am, edited 3 times in total.

Heater
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:30 am

In 2035 we will all be in a panic and consultants will be being paid huge piles of money to ensure that the 2038 problem does not cause to much damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

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Burngate
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:15 am

Heater wrote:In 2035 we will all be in a panic and consultants will be being paid huge piles of money to ensure that the 2038 problem does not cause to much damage.
Don't know about you, but I'm hoping I (or my daughter) will be one of those consultants ...

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:42 am

2035 is a loong way off

Surely at the very least it will be on your watch, with a projected screen onto your palm
or subcutaneous circuitry with retina eye screen and eye tracking :geek:

So what would be pi sized - a hand sized 3d printer ? :)
Last edited by mikerr on Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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epoch1970
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:46 am

RPF's mission is education. Current hardware is designed to help fulfill the mission.
What are in 2020 (today) the technological or social trends that will become mainstream? These will form the base of the engineering education kids would need to have in 2035.

I'd say these feel important and are here to stay:
- Cloud computing,
- Agile or concurrent engineering,
- AI (if it doesn't fall flat on its face for a 3rd time...)
- Social networking,
- Natural language HMI,
- Distributed authority/chain of trust (digital contracts, payments...),
- Wireless data and power transmission,
- Roles and behaviors expected in a sustainable society,
- 3D printing (affects design and logistics; lessens the importance of mass production)

So I'd say in 2035, Raspberry Pi will be, first of all, a huge software platform in the cloud. The Scratch of its time will allow to assemble AI agents.
If there is still need for a machine (I would say yes, it's part of the fun), Bluetooth will work real good on it because speaker and microphone access will be a must :)
I don't understand hardware so I won't try to speculate much further. Except that I'm not sure we'll need to have a PiWatch form-factor...
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:27 pm

Quantum processors!
More ram! Lots of ram!
Wireless power system that draws electrons from the air! Footprint reduced to the size of a grain of rice!

Or the RPF might have lost all their money by then and get shutdown
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Laurens-wuyts
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:43 pm

I don't think they will go a lot faster.
I think they will just expand in number of cores/threads, a few 1000 cores or something like that.

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W. H. Heydt
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:24 pm

jahboater wrote:
W. H. Heydt wrote: On the software side, a full shift to 64-bit, especially for storing time so that there is no rollover in 2038.
I think 64-bits is the norm now. When did you last see a 32-bit Intel desktop PC for sale? As for ARM SBC's, similar boards to the Pi3 (odroid-c2, pine64 say) all run "official" 64-bit OS's.
Pi Zero, A+, B+, CM, and Pi2B are all limited to 32-bit. The "standard" Raspbian can't go 64-bit until those models are.all so far back that they are, effectively , not used any more. The transition for the CM (to the CM3) is imminent, the transition for the A+ (to Pi3A) is "soon". Chip prices are probably going to have to drop substantially for the Pi Zero to be upgraded to a 2837 SoC or better. Might happen in two to three years, but safer to say three to five years.

By the mid-2020s, I would expect the Pi Zero equivalent to be able to handle a 64-bit OS.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:26 pm

Heater wrote:In 2035 we will all be in a panic and consultants will be being paid huge piles of money to ensure that the 2038 problem does not cause to much damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
Having been around--as a programmer--when the "Y2K" problem was a thing, I don't think you'll the panic approach until 2037.

That said, I have a button that says:

COBOL Programmer
The Y10K Project

Heater
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:39 am

Ha, I think you are right.

However, potentially the 2038 problem is even bigger. It's not just a case of hiring a bunch of COBOL programmers out of retirement and hacking some code on a few mainframes. No, this time the problem is distributed over billions of embedded systems, using different operating systems, different languages, in remote or hard to get at locations, often not easily upgradable remotely.

The 2028 problem already bit me some years ago when trying to use openssl to generate certificates that expired after 40 years. The certs did not work, they were already expired as openssl used 32 bit time.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Mon Aug 01, 2016 7:27 pm

Heater wrote:Ha, I think you are right.

However, potentially the 2038 problem is even bigger. It's not just a case of hiring a bunch of COBOL programmers out of retirement and hacking some code on a few mainframes. No, this time the problem is distributed over billions of embedded systems, using different operating systems, different languages, in remote or hard to get at locations, often not easily upgradable remotely.

The 2028 problem already bit me some years ago when trying to use openssl to generate certificates that expired after 40 years. The certs did not work, they were already expired as openssl used 32 bit time.
Well... The question becomes: How many current systems (using 32-bit time) will still be in use 22 years from now? Even now, a lot of systems are 64-bit. The obvious (to me at least) is to insist that all 64-bit *nix systems convert to 64-bit time. Then, by the time 2038 rolls around, there should be very little that needs doing.

As for being bitten long in advance...yes. I worked in a shop in the mid-1970s that had a program for calculating 40 year amortization tables. It had to deal with the "Y2K problem". Actually, programmers generally were aware that there was going to be a Y2K problem in the 1970s. At that time, business applications were, generally speaking, replaced about every 7 years and the assumption was that, at some point during such a replacement cycle, there would be a shift to 4-digit year coding. Then businesses stopped replacing application systems and all the programmers realized that the existing systems were going to have to be modified. The upper management that that held the purse-strings didn't want to spend the money. So instead of gradually fixing things while other work was being done, the C-suite waited until the last minute and then panic set in, making the whole fix far more expensive.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:06 pm

W. H. Heydt,
The question becomes: How many current systems (using 32-bit time) will still be in use 22 years from now?
Good question.

Industrial things tend to hang around for a long time. There are still people keeping their Windows 98 machines running for the sake of the few million dollars of hardware it controls with some closed source software they cannot migrate to anything newer.

Around here half the cities traffic lights are controlled by software developed in the 1980's

Thing is 'embedded systems' are exactly that, embedded. They may well be embedded in machines and systems that are expected to have decades of life time.
So instead of gradually fixing things while other work was being done, the C-suite waited until the last minute and then panic set in, making the whole fix far more expensive.
Yep, the problem was not on their shift. They got whatever it was they had to do done. Then retired and collected their pensions. Let others clean up the mess.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:37 pm

There is also the fact that most embedded systems probably don't even need to be 32 bit, never mind 64. Means the chips are much cheaper (much smaller die area), run cooler, use less power.
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Mon Aug 01, 2016 8:50 pm

So...at the very least, with the RPF having good forward thinking and being run by intelligent people, I propose that by 2026 (and probably a good deal sooner), Raspbian will have 64-bit time and the very worst that can happen in 2038 will be that a current version OS (Raspbian, most likely) can be swapped in and there will be no problems. As for all the other small and embedded systems, Pi users will be able to point and laugh at their lack of planning and future proofing.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:18 pm

I'll probably still be running a Pi2, right along side my prized circa 1993 (x86/20 MHz) email server (still usable).

My requirements won't change, and the cloud is for vapor.
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:55 pm

Ronaldlees,
...cloud is for vapor
Ha, I like it.

I just wish it would start raining. With silicon becoming ever so cheap we could all have lot's of it, here on the ground. No need for google, AWS, Azure cloud services anymore.

Thing about the term "cloud" is that it is totally dishonest. "cloud" to my mind is some nebulous, distributed thing. The current cloud is basically sentral servers in big lumps being owned by big companies. Nobody owns clouds.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:04 pm

Heater wrote:Nobody owns clouds.
The conventional definition of "the cloud" is "somebody else's computer".

It's what we used to call a "bureau service" back in the days of punched cards, fanfold paper and 6250bpi tapes.
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:19 pm

DougieLawson wrote:
Heater wrote:Nobody owns clouds.
The conventional definition of "the cloud" is "somebody else's computer".

It's what we used to call a "bureau service" back in the days of punched cards, fanfold paper and 6250bpi tapes.
I remember a system where you could see the magnetic bits by applying a magnetic liquid!
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Wed Aug 03, 2016 7:42 am

Cancelor wrote:I remember a system where you could see the magnetic bits by applying a magnetic liquid!
A microscope, some developing solution, a razor blade and a steady hand - that's all you needed for videotape editing on 2-inch quadruplex. Then they went and spoiled it with helical scan.

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Re: Speculate LONG term

Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:41 pm

Ronaldlees wrote:I'll probably still be running a Pi2, right along side my prized circa 1993 (x86/20 MHz) email server (still usable).

My requirements won't change, and the cloud is for vapor.
I dunno. I use Google Drive to great effect, automatically syncing stuff with tablets, always able to get hold of stuff (as long as a net connection is handy). I use it mainly for lyrics and music, edit on the PC, sync to tablet, use tablet on stage. Works great and fairly easy to set up.

I have no issues with security.
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Re: Speculate LONG term

Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:18 pm

I don't know about 10 years, but in 20 there will be no Pi computers. Programming generates intellectual property and serfs cannot own property. As any property owner knows, the serfs are bound to the property and the users to the intellectual property. Read current end user software license agreements which state the user is specifically not allowed to "work around any technical limitations in the software" to see where the world is heading. In the future programming will be illegal and creative people will raise sheep and goats while singing songs instead.

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