lewmur
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Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:30 pm

Does anyone have any idea of how Brexit is going to effect the Pi supply chain?

stderr
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Re: Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:44 pm

lewmur wrote:Does anyone have any idea of how Brexit is going to effect the Pi supply chain?
Most electronic components are priced in US dollars so the general effects of currency machinations shouldn't affect those outside a currency's usage area other than to whatever extent there is a value add within the area, so in this case, parts shouldn't change in price but the costs of assembling the pi boards themselves might go down a little. I think that the innovation of the pi people is to start with a low price and build profit into it as build costs go down. This should work to their plan outside the UK, but obviously it will be harder inside if the pound heads further toward the ground. Since *nothing* has changed other than there was a vote, there is no good reason for the pound to keep going down, but that logic won't stop the FUD and the betting things will get worse crowd.

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B.Goode
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Re: Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:54 pm

lewmur wrote:Does anyone have any idea of how Brexit is going to effect the Pi supply chain?
I would be amazed if the bright people at the Raspberry Pi Foundation and Raspberry Pi Trading had not modelled what might happen under a variety of scenarios.

I would be even more amazed if they replied to this query by revealing what conclusions they had come to.

The exit of the UK from the EU is probably 2 years away: in the meantime a lot can happen and idle speculation will be unrewarding.

W. H. Heydt
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Re: Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:00 pm

lewmur wrote:Does anyone have any idea of how Brexit is going to effect the Pi supply chain?
Two relevant points...

1. Market and currency prices are driven by fear and greed. Many people are afraid of the unknown, so the present situation is being driven by fear. When the GBP gets low enough, greed will take over.

2. The referendum was actually *advisory*. (No actual decision was made.) There is a petition (1.5 million supporters, last I checked) to hold another vote and to require that the just past vote and any other ones must ahve 60% favorable result AND have a 75% voter turnout. Applying that the the just completed vote is highly unlikely as--apparently--the UK isn't any more fond of ex post facto legislation than the US is, even without a governing document saying so.

Temporarily, it may be a bit cheaper for buyers outside the UK to buy goods--such as Pis--from UK vendors. Even if the price in US$ doesn't change, shipping should be cheaper in other currencies.

hippy
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Re: Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:06 pm

B.Goode wrote:I would be amazed if the bright people at the Raspberry Pi Foundation and Raspberry Pi Trading had not modelled what might happen under a variety of scenarios.
I would be surprised if that went much further than deciding they would have to wait and see how the vote went and figure it out from there and how things go.
Heater wrote:There will be no exit of the UK from the EU.
I suspect you are right based on Cameron resigning to save himself from invoking Article 50. Until that is done we aren't actually leaving.

The leavers want it invoking as soon as possible so there's no going back. That's probably why they were supporting Cameron staying as PM because he had promised to invoke it immediately. Cameron did not want Article 50 invoking and the only way to avoid his promise was to sacrifice himself and resign.

We will now likely get Boris Johnson as PM who seemed to be euro-sceptic only to further his career. His initial plan was we vote to leave but not actually leave, to shock the EU into giving us a deal.

There is every possibility that plan is now in play. The EU could give us a deal, we could then have a further referendum, and decide on that.

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davidcoton
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Re: Supply chain

Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:47 pm

Obviously the PM should be replaced with a PI.
Then we could vote for who gets to program it.
And in what language (programming as well as natural).
Just think, it's cheap enough that we could upgrade it when necessary without raising taxes.
Signature retired

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Gavinmc42
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:22 am

Get rid of all the pollies?
Hmm, think the budget just got fixed.

Langauges?
Smalltalk for local government.
Sensetalk for state government.
Supertalk for federal government.

All about to be superseded by a new version of Sensetalk called Sensecommon.

Actually all decisions could be decided by a simple program written in Basic programmed by 9 year
olds. Heads -motion carried, tails - motion denied.
Correct decision 50% of the time?
About to go to elections soon here. Hope they have a box for the "no party" party.
Why don't they have a box to get rid of government?
Let the people decide?
Wow, it exists?
http://www.peopledecide.org.au/
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joan
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:30 am

W. H. Heydt wrote: ...
2. The referendum was actually *advisory*. (No actual decision was made.) There is a petition (1.5 million supporters, last I checked) to hold another vote and to require that the just past vote and any other ones must ahve 60% favorable result AND have a 75% voter turnout. Applying that the the just completed vote is highly unlikely as--apparently--the UK isn't any more fond of ex post facto legislation than the US is, even without a governing document saying so.
...
The petition is irrelevant. It just shows there are millions of fools willing to sign a silly petition. At the time of the referendum result there were 24 signatories. All subsequent signers are deluded people who don't agree with the vote (a few of whom may even have been eligible to vote in the referendum).

The referendum is done and dusted. The UK is leaving the EU. All that is left is to discuss the terms.

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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:43 am

joan wrote:
W. H. Heydt wrote: ...
2. The referendum was actually *advisory*. (No actual decision was made.) There is a petition (1.5 million supporters, last I checked) to hold another vote and to require that the just past vote and any other ones must ahve 60% favorable result AND have a 75% voter turnout. Applying that the the just completed vote is highly unlikely as--apparently--the UK isn't any more fond of ex post facto legislation than the US is, even without a governing document saying so.
...
The petition is irrelevant. It just shows there are millions of fools willing to sign a silly petition. At the time of the referendum result there were 24 signatories. All subsequent signers are deluded people who don't agree with the vote (a few of whom may even have been eligible to vote in the referendum).

The referendum is done and dusted. The UK is leaving the EU. All that is left is to discuss the terms.
Agreed. A lot of people may not like the result, but it was democratic, albeit exceptionally close.I suspect we are in for a few fairly horrible years, as if the last 5 austerity years were not bad enough...

What I do find quite annoying is that the turnout, on something this important, wasn't much higher.
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kusti8
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:16 pm

Putting my feelings aside, because the vote is so close, half the population is going to feel unhappy. That narrow win causes only more arguments.
There are 10 types of people: those who understand binary and those who don't.

jahboater
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:27 pm

kusti8 wrote:Putting my feelings aside, because the vote is so close, half the population is going to feel unhappy. That narrow win causes only more arguments.
Yes.
Sadly many "leave" votes were for the wrong reason.
For example, people unhappy with the current government and the austerity. They just wanted to give the government "a kick ...", nothing to do with the EU. But they, and everyone else, will have to pay for the next few years.

The petition now has over 3.3 million signatures.

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joan
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:39 pm

jahboater wrote: ...
The petition now has over 3.3 million signatures.
Some 40 thousand from the Vatican City - very few (including me) knew it was a remaining British territory.

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DougieLawson
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:49 pm

jahboater wrote:
Sadly many "leave" votes were for the wrong reason.
Most of the leave votes came from the regions, non-city, non-surburban areas where folks were able to see that having a puppet EU Gov't (including N. Farage MEP) directed by an un-elected EU Commission (J-C Juncker and his fellow EU gravy train passengers) with a desire to create a Federal Europe seems like a bad thing.

The remain votes were in NI, Wales, Scotland and central city areas which are clearly less affected by austerity, job losses, EU farming legislation and all the other junk foisted upon us by the un-elected EU Commission. Scotland, Wales and NI also have a much smaller percentage of the UK population, so that skews the numbers.

Sweden will be next to hold a leave/remain referendum, closely followed by the Netherlands.

Basingstoke & Deane and Test Valley (they're the next door neighbours to B&DDC) are the most boring places in the country because their votes (51.9% vs 48.1) exactly matched the national percentages (to one significant digit).

The referendum isn't binding (and the petition is pointless and may be illegal), the Gov't with their new leader could, quite simply, choose to ignore it and not file for exit under clause 50 of the Lisbon treaty. It looks like it's happening, but it's not a done deal until the clause 50 stuff is enacted by the UK and accepted by the EU.
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stderr
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:01 pm

joan wrote:
jahboater wrote: ...
The petition now has over 3.3 million signatures.
Some 40 thousand from the Vatican City - very few (including me) knew it was a remaining British territory.
I think they were confused and thought this would overturn the Henry the Eighth thing. Next on deck, a petition to upend the Peace of Westphalia.

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joan
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:02 pm

England and Wales voted leave.

We would be living in very interesting times if Parliament (for the first time) ignored a referendum result. They would perhaps be reminded who are the masters and who are the servants.

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DougieLawson
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:07 pm

joan wrote:England and Wales voted leave.
OK. I'll give you that.
Half of Wales (lots of the Cymraeg parts) voted to stay.
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jahboater
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:30 pm

and the petition is pointless and may be illegal
Why might it be illegal?
Isn't it organised by the government - the domain is "parliament.uk"?

I agree its likely pointless.
Any petition with over 100k signatures "will be considered for debate in parliament".
so I guess they can selectively choose to ignore them.

stderr
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:47 pm

jahboater wrote:
and the petition is pointless and may be illegal
Why might it be illegal? Isn't it organised by the government - the domain is "parliament.uk"?
The Obama petitions were written by people who wanted him to address things and started on the whitehouse website, as I recall. So you could word them however you wanted and certainly that could include forms that demanded action that wasn't legally required or even was otherwise illegal. So are these petitions written by the government or by concerned people with their own agendas?

In the US, there are no referenda (or worse citizen initiatives) at the federal level. They often exist at the state level but US states are not allowed to have a foreign policy. We all have representative government because we learned, or thought we learned, something from the Ancient Greeks, that doing a lot of directly asking of the people what to do creates a lot of problems.

But if you are going to ask the people something, if you are going to call an election or put up a referendum, since you've got the choice in this, you *never* do it unless you absolutely know you are going to win. This was never a sure outcome either way therefore the foolishness of bringing it forward unless the PM truly wanted the people to decide, which he clearly didn't, earns him the outcome, his resignation. Hopefully the next person will discuss things a bit before rashly acting.

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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:51 pm

So are these petitions written by the government or by concerned people with their own agendas?
The petition mechanism and the website is, I think, provided by the government, but not the individual petitions themselves of course, that would be daft.
Last edited by jahboater on Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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DougieLawson
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Re: Supply chain

Sun Jun 26, 2016 6:54 pm

The petition may be hosted on a parliament.uk website but it was started by a member of the pubic. There also appears to have been some signature stuffing going on (which is currently being investigated by the folks who run the website).

Anyone in the UK can start their own petition at: https://petition.parliament.uk/

Rules are documented here: https://petition.parliament.uk/help
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Gavinmc42
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Re: Supply chain

Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:17 am

Eben for PM?
If he and the gang can overturn the SBC industry and education, why not government?
Get a lots more factories running, turn out mega lots of Pi's and make Britain a world Pi superpower ;)
Might have take over Royal Mail 1st to get those Pi's out.
Ship chips n bits in, ship Pi's out, Railways, Ports and Airports will need more staff.
Pi's now get delivered the final leg by drones.
Any EU country that does not like it gets no Pi's.
Civil uprising in the schools, countries leave the EU and join Britain's PiU.
Elon Musk makes a hyperloop from China to the UK under the pole to supply parts.
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asandford
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Re: Supply chain

Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:05 am

joan wrote: We would be living in very interesting times if Parliament (for the first time) ignored a referendum result. They would perhaps be reminded who are the masters and who are the servants.
They must overrule it as its not in the best interest of the everyone, the world is in turmoil now. How can the opion of 17.5M be allowed to cause such disruption to the rest of the planet?

W. H. Heydt
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Re: Supply chain

Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:09 am

Gavinmc42 wrote: Elon Musk makes a hyperloop from China to the UK under the pole to supply parts.
NW Passage, more likely. You'd have to go pretty deep to go under the pole. (Just how deep is the Arctic Ocean, anyway?)

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Burngate
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Re: Supply chain

Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:49 am

jahboater wrote:Sadly many "leave" votes were for the wrong reason.
For example, people unhappy with the current government and the austerity. They just wanted to give the government "a kick ...", nothing to do with the EU. But they, and everyone else, will have to pay for the next few years.
asandford wrote:
joan wrote:We would be living in very interesting times if Parliament (for the first time) ignored a referendum result ...
... How can the opion of 17.5M be allowed to cause such disruption to the rest of the planet?
I don't know about the other (17.5M -1), but my reasons for voting out weren't "wrong" - I thought about it and made up my mind, early on, and nothing said by the Remain group convinced me I was wrong, despite much discussion.

It appeared to me that the EU elite were hell-bent on an undemocratic Ever-Closer Union.
If the result were to be a win for Remain, how ever close, Tusk et. al. would breathe a sigh of relief and carry on regardless, to what appeared to me to be an inevitable train-crash.
A win for Brexit, how ever close, could start a domino cascade in other countries, leading to the abandonment of Ever-Closer Union.

It's interesting that only now are we hearing that there's a ground-swell of popular opinion elsewhere in the EU against that Ever-Closer Union idea, a ground-swell that the powers-that-be have been trying to ignore, and would have continued ignoring until the train-crash.

As for 17.5M holding the rest of the planet to ransom, the Remain side would have been quite happy to do exactly the same.
I, though, as just one member of the losing side, would have accepted it, and made the best of my life under what I believe to be the worse option. Trying to get it changed just 'cos I don't like it seems somewhat childish.

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Re: Supply chain

Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:41 am

To try and keep things on track before I go off on a rant...

The Pi supply chain is in China, so even if we do actually pull out of the EU then our relationship with China may not be affected. That is, of course, assuming that a politician actually has the guts to follow through with their promises and invokes Article 50 - which is highly unlikely.
DougieLawson wrote:
joan wrote:England and Wales voted leave.
OK. I'll give you that.
Half of Wales (lots of the Cymraeg parts) voted to stay.
If you're going to try and argue someone else's position then please get your facts straight: only 5 local authority areas out of 22 voted Remain:
  • Ceredigion
  • Gwynedd
  • Cardiff
  • Monmouthshire
  • Vale of Glamorgan
It's fair to say that these represent some of the far more affluent areas of Wales, and three of these aren't really big Welsh-speaking areas. The results of the vote in Wales is what we saw across the rest of England: more affluent areas voted Remain and less well off areas voted Leave. The anger and frustration of Leave voters is misdirected. The ones they should be angry at are their own government and their own politicians; these are the self-serving elitsts that have consistently failed the poor, the deprived, the post-industrial areas of the country, and they are the ones that have consistently failed to stand up for for the rights the average working person. Sure the EU is a big bloated bueraucratic mess, but it's a mess that has provided benefits to working people like the working time directive, maternity leave, holiday allowance, paternity leave, shared parental leave, etc. The EU is a red herring in this debate; if you want to be angry at someone because they don't represent you or your interests then direct your anger in a productive fashion: at your government, at the opposition parties, at your own MP. These are the people who should be standing up for you and these are the people who have failed you.

I am so angry that Wales would collectively cut off it's nose to spite it's own face; we have received £4 billion in EU structural funds since 2016; if anyone has the guts to actually pull the trigger on Article 50 then you can be damn sure that Westminster will not replace/match that funding, especially when so many other parts of the UK will lose out on EU investment.

I sincerely hope that, when the Tories finally decide who gets the poisoned chalice of leading the party, a general election is called. If you want to make sure that your voice is heard, that you are represented, then that is the time to take action and that is the time to hold to account those who have failed you.

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