Why is the Osborne effect wrong?

[LeMoog]

If, as seems clear, the foundation doesn't want people buying a RPi for any reason than those they approve then they should continue as they are and they will discover before too long that the only market they have is the one they want.

I don't know how you can come to the conclusion that the Foundation only want people buying Pi's for things they approve of. And, even if they do end up only serving the educational market they created themselves to serve, I don't see that as much of a problem.

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes. If you disagree with this then perhaps you would agree that BBC micro would be a better learning platform, certainly it made for concise programmers who had to plan any large project before attempting to code it, i.e. VERBOTEN.

If you had looked at the Android section of this forum you would understand that efforts have been made to prevent popular support for this on the RPi i.e. control after sale. That section of the forums has been like that for over a year, they could have deleted the whole android forum or just posted a link to where discussion continued but felt leaving in that disgraceful state sent a better message..

[rpdom]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Ok, so learning Linux on a Pi means you won't be able to use one of the most popular operating systems in the world on any other platform?

If you had looked at the Android section of this forum you would understand that efforts have been made to prevent popular support for this on the RPi i.e. control after sale. That section of the forums has been like that for over a year, they could have deleted the whole android forum or just posted a link to where discussion continued but felt leaving in that disgraceful state sent a better message..

Ok, so what would Android bring to the Pi? Nothing that I can see and I have done work on Android (which I am working on moving to the Pi). Also I made a career for a few years on writing software for the BBC micro too.

[jamesh]

My assessment is that the foundation only sees one market, that of the electronic hobbyist and education for the same. There are other uses for the RPi and many have purchased them for reasons other than the market envisioned by the foundation.

That the organisation has made efforts to block development in other areas is evident from the android section of this forum, this attempt to limit the use of a product after sale can have major consequences. Especially if your market is not predicable because you do not understand it.

Irrespective of what the foundation wants, people have purchased the RPi for reasons other than those envisioned by the seller.

Those misunderstood sales have funded the continued growth and existence of the foundation, this is a good thing but on the other hand without understanding your market you cannot predict how it will react and that is why the Zero is more popular than expected and why the RPi3 is not a direct replacement for the RPi2 and why running a flawed stealth mode on the RPi3 release was such a bad idea.

If, as seems clear, the foundation doesn't want people buying a RPi for any reason than those they approve then they should continue as they are and they will discover before too long that the only market they have is the one they want.

A limited market that will quickly become saturated and eventually move onto more open minded systems that have the cash, the foundation didn't want, to continue the development of their platforms.

The fact is there is SOC competition and like the post above about the little company and IBM, the only reason IBM won out was because of faith in IBM and no reason to trust an unknown. When the "unknown" is the only one offering what is wanted they do not stay unknown for long, they instead become the standard and quickly move away from their beginnings to make their old competitors obsolete.

Sorry, you post is almost entirely wrong.

Eben is perfectly aware of markets outside education (note, he works for Broadcom, which is an entirely commercial operation) - and the Foundation has consciously tried to help - the Compute module is that foray in to that area. And has pretty low sales compared with the other devices, probably because even though it a cheap way of building a Pi into a product, it still require effort from people who want to use it. And companies and people are just too damn lazy when you have something like a normal Pi that mostly does what you want.

The Foundation has ALWAYS said anyone can buy a Pi - I really cannot see why you think they are trying to stop people outside education buying them. That is completely untrue, and you really need to reassess your attitude there. If they only wanted educational people to buy them, they woudl only sell via educational suppliers (and they would make a hell of a lot more money too)

Android forum - well, there is NO Android for the Pi that works, the Foundation doesn't have the resources or inclination (because, well, it's pretty crap for education) to port it. The actual reason why the Android forum here was closed because us Mods were so cheesed off having to constantly answer "Why no Android, How do I get Android working" types posts. It was wasting so much Mod time. There is a perfectly fine Google+ group if you want to talk Android. Now of course, Android is used in some other areas that Pi could sell in to. But the Foundation has better use for its resources than porting Android. It's a long and painful job (I know), and those resources are better spent elsewhere, geting Raspbian working, getting new boards up and running etc.

I'm always amazed by your sort of post. The Foundation is tremendously successful. 8M boards sold, the most successful UK built computer of all time, has the support of Google and Microsoft, it making inroads in to schools, has a device on the ISS, has trained hundreds of teachers in the UK and USA, has gone from a single core Armv6 to a quad core A53 in 4 years, is the most successful SBC ever made, and cannot make boards fast enough to satisfy demand. So why do you think they are doing it wrong? Or that you have the right ideas for the future? You can tell by the inaccuracies in your post that you really don't understand what is actually going on here.

[jamesh]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Ok, so learning Linux on a Pi means you won't be able to use one of the most popular operating systems in the world on any other platform?

I use Linux at work. I have a X session running from an Ubuntu server. I move seamlessly from this to a Pi. The code on one compiles on the other. Even the custom USB DECE ULE dongles work seamlessly on both devices (and also on Windows!)

There is little to nothing on the Pi that isn't useful on LInux elsewhere. The Pi really does run a standard Linux.


If you want something that really is pretty bad for computer education, how about an iPad, or a locked down Windows machine, or even an Android device. Good for learning...what exactly? How to play Flappy birds and write an essay on a word processor, or knock up a Powerpoint. Wow.

[stderr]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes. If you disagree with this then perhaps you would agree that BBC micro would be a better learning platform,

Even when the IBM PC was the standard, there were a lot of other options. The pi has managed to create not just itself but an entire kind of compatible industry of SBC boards. There is no competing standard with anything like this sort of volume.

Of course it is irritating to learn new things when you already knew them the old way. But one huge part of learning about technology is that that is how it is. Sure you can complain and flame about it, and that's fine, but in the end, you've got to just accept that is what it is.

[stderr]

If you want something that really is pretty bad for computer education, how about an iPad, or a locked down Windows machine, or even an Android device. Good for learning...what exactly? How to play Flappy birds and write an essay on a word processor, or knock up a Powerpoint. Wow.

I think what is being done with Android and iOS is bordering on criminal. I mean that in the real sense. People who *own* something should not be locked out of what they own. And the criminal part comes in when being locked out prevents them from updating their software with known fixes to known security issues because the maker of the product, less Apple and more the androiders, make it, lock you out, and forget about you. I bet if Jeb Bush had made that an issue, he'd still be in the running!

[rpdom]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Ok, so learning Linux on a Pi means you won't be able to use one of the most popular operating systems in the world on any other platform?

I use Linux at work. I have a X session running from an Ubuntu server. I move seamlessly from this to a Pi. The code on one compiles on the other. Even the custom USB DECE ULE dongles work seamlessly on both devices (and also on Windows!)

There is little to nothing on the Pi that isn't useful on LInux elsewhere. The Pi really does run a standard Linux.

Exactly my point

I've been running Linux on x86 boxes for years and the fact that the Pi ran Debian (initially, then Raspbian) was the real "Must Have" selling point to me.

I've never regretted buying my first or any my other Pis

[hippy]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Not entirely; it really depends what they have learned, how tied to a Pi that is and how portable that knowledge is. Higher level programming is mostly platform independent, as are most principles and concepts of computer science.

[jdb]

... has a device on the ISS ...

Two, actually.

[Heater]

LeMoog,

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Do what? Sure I disagree.

The Pi runs Raspbian i.e. Debian. Most users use Raspbian. Almost all of what they learn by using a Pi is transferable to any other Linux running machine.

What's the issue with Android? Who cares? It's not really suitable for what the Pi was built for. If anyone wants to get Android running on the Pi I don't believe the Pi Foundation has an issue with that.

[skspurling]

I thought the RPi3-based Pi A model was all but official....
Or maybe I misremember.

That's what Eben said, some time this year. Remember that last year, about this time, he said they planned to release a Pi2A in the "4th quarter." Didn't happen. There was also supposed to be a CM2 last year. That didn't happen either. The problem was that the sales of the Pi2B stayed so high, there weren't parts or capacity to make Pi2A or CM2 boards. (And, if it comes to that, the original Model A--the one that "failed"--was delayed a long time for the same reasons.) So....right now they're making Pi3Bs as fast as possible to handle demand. it is "expected" that demand will slack off in a few weeks. But will that happen?

Okay, from my recollection, this isn't quite right.It was revealed at the Pi3 launch that the pi2A and cm2 were all a dead end product as soon as the processor for the pi3 was offered up shortly after the Pi2 release. There was not much official talk of additional Pi2 models by the foundation at that point. Unless there's another big boost in the pipe, I don't think this will happen again.

You have to keep in mind that there is more to these alternate models than "Oh! Pi2A!" Bam! There it is! It takes months of design and planning to get these in the pipe. Then you have to make and test initial stock before release. You don't go through that for a product that will be off the market in a year. I, for one, am glad they shun the vaporware marketing sickness that has eaten up the IT industry.

[W. H. Heydt]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Not entirely; it really depends what they have learned, how tied to a Pi that is and how portable that knowledge is. Higher level programming is mostly platform independent, as are most principles and concepts of computer science.

As is Linux.

[W. H. Heydt]

I thought the RPi3-based Pi A model was all but official....
Or maybe I misremember.

That's what Eben said, some time this year. Remember that last year, about this time, he said they planned to release a Pi2A in the "4th quarter." Didn't happen. There was also supposed to be a CM2 last year. That didn't happen either. The problem was that the sales of the Pi2B stayed so high, there weren't parts or capacity to make Pi2A or CM2 boards. (And, if it comes to that, the original Model A--the one that "failed"--was delayed a long time for the same reasons.) So....right now they're making Pi3Bs as fast as possible to handle demand. it is "expected" that demand will slack off in a few weeks. But will that happen?

Okay, from my recollection, this isn't quite right.It was revealed at the Pi3 launch that the pi2A and cm2 were all a dead end product as soon as the processor for the pi3 was offered up shortly after the Pi2 release. There was not much official talk of additional Pi2 models by the foundation at that point. Unless there's another big boost in the pipe, I don't think this will happen again.

You have to keep in mind that there is more to these alternate models than "Oh! Pi2A!" Bam! There it is! It takes months of design and planning to get these in the pipe. Then you have to make and test initial stock before release. You don't go through that for a product that will be off the market in a year. I, for one, am glad they shun the vaporware marketing sickness that has eaten up the IT industry.

I'm not arguing that those aren't valid issues and effects. Sure...once the 2837 was coming *soon* dropping the plans for the Pi2A and CM2 made sense, and the only mentions of them were early on after the Pi2B came out. Most of the subsequent discussion was carried out by us "end users". Even with the advent of the Pi3, I wouldn't have objected (and still wouldn't object) to a Pi2A and a CM2, but don't think sales would amount to a great deal. And even with the Pi3, I think there is a place for an upgraded (512MB, 1GHz default) A+ as a low power alternative to a Pi3A where power is a serious issue.

My point was that, releasing a CM3 (of which we are told production prototypes exist, so it's "ready to go") depends on two things that are only--at best--loosely under the RPTs control, and those are demand (and, hence, production line dominance) and maintaining a sufficient supply of 2837 SoCs to support making both enogh Pi3Bs and CM3s--and, eventually, Pi3As--in addition. I don't think that there is any real doubt that TSMC can make enough SoCs, so long as they are ordered in a timely manner (lead time is...what? 6 to 8 weeks? Longer?) and the orders don't run into higher priority orders in the fabs (*don't* try to order SoCs for September/October delivery....you're fighting the Christmas production ramp up).

If Pi3B demand stays high, then where is the production capacity to make enough Pi3Bs and still make Pi Zeros *and* make an intial supply of CM3s?

[karrika]

There also the other effect, I call it the Elop effect. That killed Nokia. Another case of an announcement that kills either a product or even an entire company.

I believe the correct translation of Elop to Finnish is eFlop.

[Jim JKla]

Wow back on topic!

[Heater]

There is no topic here.

[Jim JKla]

Other than the topic implied by the thread title.

[jamesh]

Just had a chat with someone who knows, the approximate time from order to getting a chip out of a fab is about 12-14 weeks. Then you have to add on test and packaging (the fab produces bare wafers). So that should give some idea to how long you would have to wait after an initial order of the SoC to actually getting a Pi out of the door. It's going to be 16-18 or more weeks.

Note, this has nothing to do with the Foundation, that how the chip manufacturing world works.

[Jim JKla]

Thanks jamesh thats the sort of information I was after.

[Burngate]

Just had a chat with someone who knows, the approximate time from order to getting a chip out of a fab is about 12-14 weeks. Then you have to add on test and packaging (the fab produces bare wafers). So that should give some idea to how long you would have to wait after an initial order of the SoC to actually getting a Pi out of the door. It's going to be 16-18 or more weeks.

Note, this has nothing to do with the Foundation, that how the chip manufacturing world works.

One of the things about the Pi is that you learn about more things than just computing

[6by9]

Just had a chat with someone who knows, the approximate time from order to getting a chip out of a fab is about 12-14 weeks. Then you have to add on test and packaging (the fab produces bare wafers). So that should give some idea to how long you would have to wait after an initial order of the SoC to actually getting a Pi out of the door. It's going to be 16-18 or more weeks.

I remember the early engineering samples were done with a (significant) rush fee paid, and those took ~6 weeks to come back for a couple of wafers worth. Those then had to be packaged which added an extra day or so. Typically they were then hand carried back to the lab to avoid courier and customs delays.
Fitting in with the normal fab timelines will be significantly slower, so 12-14 weeks sounds right.

[W. H. Heydt]

The problem is that if the RPi is not the standard and becomes obsolete then anything learned from using it will have to be relearned on a current standard, thereby making it useless for education purposes.

Have you noticed how many other SBCs that have come to market in the last 4 years make a big thing about having a "Pi compatible" or "almost Pi compatible" GPIO block? The Pi is *making* de facto standards, simply by having sold far more boards than any other SBC product. Also look at the number "<fruitname> Pi" boards out there. Companies *want* on the Pi bandwagon. They want a piece--even if it's a small piece--of the Pi market and the way to get it is to be as Pi compatible as they can, within the constraints of SoCs they can get (and if Broadcom started selling the SoCs used on the Pis in small lots, I think you'd see true clones popping up all over the place).. Even board layouts are often very, very similar to the Pi. Some compaines have even gone from barrel power connectors to microUSB connectors (just like the Pi).

So...even if the RPF were to disappear tomorrow and all Pi production ceased, many things that the Pi started would live on. (And I am happy to say that I consider that scenario to be pure fantasy. The RPF and Pi are here to stay.)

[DougieLawson]

That the organisation has made efforts to block development in other areas is evident from the android section of this forum, this attempt to limit the use of a product after sale can have major consequences. Especially if your market is not predicable because you do not understand it.

Balderdash & poppycock. Android is a busted flush, there's no value in the RPF spending any money on something that won't push their educational goal forwards. If you want to develop apps and run Android you can get an Android Marshmallow tablet for less than $100.

[hippy]

Android is a busted flush, there's no value in the RPF spending any money on something that won't push their educational goal forwards.

Every Pi sold helps their educational goals go forward, so every Pi sold for the purposes of running Android would be a win. If having Android encourages someone to want to learn computer science that's another win. And there didn't seem to be anything but enthusiasm for having Android in the past - https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/android-4-0-is-coming

The funny thing is we don't hear this 'it doesn't push their educational goals forward' for T-shirts, mugs, badges and bears which the Foundation get manufactured and sell, because we understand income helps those goals. It seems to only be used as the reason when Android is mentioned.

Not giving desired or required return on investment would be a good enough reason not to do something. But it seems 'doesn't push their educational goals forward' is favoured when it comes to Android.

[jamesh]

Android is a busted flush, there's no value in the RPF spending any money on something that won't push their educational goal forwards.

Every Pi sold helps their educational goals go forward, so every Pi sold for the purposes of running Android would be a win. If having Android encourages someone to want to learn computer science that's another win. And there didn't seem to be anything but enthusiasm for having Android in the past - https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/android-4-0-is-coming

The funny thing is we don't hear this 'it doesn't push their educational goals forward' for T-shirts, mugs, badges and bears which the Foundation get manufactured and sell, because we understand income helps those goals. It seems to only be used as the reason when Android is mentioned.

Not giving desired or required return on investment would be a good enough reason not to do something. But it seems 'doesn't push their educational goals forward' is favoured when it comes to Android.

If Android were available, it would, clearly, increase Pi sales (if only production could keep up). But the question is will the sales numbers offset the development costs. An Android port is a HUGE job, and very expensive, and whilst your engineers are working on it, they are not working on stuff that may be a better educational goal fit. If the Foundation could get someone else to do it that would be a win-win.

It's also very painful keeping Android up to date, which is why so many Android devices run old versions, no-one can afford to keep them updated except the big companies like Goggle or Samsung. The underlying API's change, and the documentation sucks. I know as I am trying to write an Android camera platform driver right now, and it's undoubtedly painful. Making mugs and T-shirts can be done by anyone in the office, not so Android stuff.